Calcio Padova welcome Ascoli to the Stadio Comunale Euganeo in Padova for a Serie B fixture on September 12, 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 13:00 local time. The hosts enter the match in 11th place after collecting one victory, one draw and one defeat from their opening three league games. Ascoli have made the stronger start and sit fourth with two wins and one draw, meaning they remain unbeaten in Serie B this season. Padova have faced Pisa, Verona and Cremonese during their opening run, while the visitors arrive with growing confidence after encouraging early performances. The contrasting form makes this a balanced contest on paper, although Ascoli's results and defensive numbers give the away side reasons for optimism.

Calcio Padova Recent Form and Key Statistics

Calcio Padova have struggled to produce consistent results. Their last five matches brought one win, two draws and two defeats, with averages of 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. Their opening three Serie B fixtures have produced a win, a draw and a loss, accompanied by league averages of 1.0 goal scored and 1.3 conceded.

The campaign began with a 1-0 result against Pisa before Padova drew their Veneto derby with Verona. Their unbeaten start then ended away to Cremonese, where they suffered a 3-1 defeat on September 6. The hosts can point to the level of their early opponents, having met three teams coming from Serie A, but they will still be looking for a more stable performance against an Ascoli side that has started positively.

One of the clearest trends surrounding Padova concerns the closing 45 minutes. Their last 11 matches have all featured under 1.5 second-half goals, while the same outcome has occurred in each of their previous 10 Serie B games. That sequence indicates that Padova's matches have repeatedly avoided multiple goals after the interval. If the pattern continues, the opening stages and any first-half breakthrough could carry particular importance.

Ascoli Recent Form and Key Statistics

Ascoli approach this away assignment in fourth position after taking seven points from three Serie B matches. Their record of two wins, one draw and no defeats represents a stronger opening than Padova's, while their league averages of 1.3 goals scored and only 0.7 conceded underline the efficiency of their start.

The visitors have also registered three victories, one draw and one defeat across their latest five outings. During that sequence, they averaged 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match. Their most recent result was a 1-0 victory over Benevento on September 5, another positive outcome after the notable success previously recorded away to Verona. Ascoli began the season aiming primarily to secure safety following promotion through the playoffs, but their opening displays have made them the best-performing promoted team after three rounds.

There are still some away-game warning signs for Ascoli. They have been behind at half-time in each of their last three away matches, so their final results do not remove the possibility of another difficult opening period. At the same time, at least one second-half goal has been scored in 22 of Ascoli's last 23 matches. This creates an interesting contrast with Padova's sequence: second-half goals have been extremely common in Ascoli fixtures, but Padova's games have consistently stayed below two goals after the break.

Calcio Padova vs Ascoli Match Analysis

The available numbers suggest that this Serie B match preview should give a narrow overall advantage to Ascoli. The visitors are fourth, seven places above 11th-placed Padova, and their unbeaten league record compares favorably with the home side's one win, one draw and one defeat. Ascoli have also conceded an average of just 0.7 goals in the competition, whereas Padova are allowing 1.3 per match.

Recent form supports the same conclusion. Padova have won only once in five matches and come into the fixture after conceding three times at Cremonese. Ascoli have won three of their last five and have just defeated Benevento without conceding. The source assessment also credits the visitors with the better early-season performances and describes their squad as improved compared with the previous campaign. Padova's demanding opening schedule provides context for their less convincing record, but the home side still need to show greater continuity.

• Serie B record: Calcio Padova have one win, one draw and one defeat; Ascoli have two wins and one draw.
• Recent five-match form: Padova have one win, two draws and two defeats; Ascoli have three wins, one draw and one defeat.
• Win probabilities: Calcio Padova 32%, draw 27%, Ascoli 41%.
• Goal probabilities: Both teams to score is rated at 52%, while under 2.5 goals stands at 53%.

The head-to-head record offers less separation between the teams. From Padova's perspective, the summary stands at two wins, one draw and two defeats, with averages of 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. The most recent meeting ended in a 2-1 Ascoli victory on April 2, 2019. That historical balance prevents the matchup from appearing one-sided, even if the current-season figures favor the visitors.

Goal expectations are relatively close. The probability of both teams scoring is 52%, compared with 48% for the opposite outcome, while under 2.5 goals has a modest 53% edge over the 47% chance assigned to over 2.5. Padova's repeated low-scoring second halves could keep the contest controlled, but Ascoli's record of a second-half goal in 22 of 23 matches means the game may still remain open until the closing stages. Overall, the visitors' superior league start, stronger five-match record and lower Serie B concession average provide the clearest direction for the final assessment.

Calcio Padova vs Ascoli prediction from BetMines: Ascoli win (2) with 41% probability.