The clash between Calcio Padova and Monza at the Euganeo Stadium promises to be one of the most intriguing fixtures of the Serie B weekend. Scheduled for Sunday, this encounter marks the twenty-second round of the campaign and brings together two sides with contrasting ambitions. The hosts are currently navigating mid-table waters, while the visitors are firmly in the promotion race. The last time these two teams met in this competition was back in 2018, and the return of this fixture adds an extra layer of anticipation for both sets of supporters.

Calcio Padova’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Calcio Padova enter this match looking to bounce back from a difficult run of results. Their recent 3-0 defeat against Südtirol on January 25 highlighted some of the defensive vulnerabilities that have plagued them in recent weeks. In their last five matches, Padova have managed just one win, one draw, and three losses, scoring an average of 0.8 goals per game while conceding 1.4. Over the course of the season, their record stands at six wins, seven draws, and eight defeats, with an average of one goal scored and 1.2 conceded per match.

Despite their struggles, the home side have shown some consistency in certain aspects of their play. Notably, Under 3.5 goals have been recorded in each of their last twelve Serie B matches, suggesting a tendency toward low-scoring affairs. At the Euganeo, early goals have been a common feature, with Over 0.5 goals at half time occurring in 18 of their last 20 home fixtures. However, Padova’s inability to start strongly has been costly — they have been trailing at the break in seven of their last eleven home games, including six of their last ten in Serie B.

Currently ranked 12th in the league, Padova’s campaign has been one of inconsistency. While they have shown flashes of quality, their inability to maintain momentum has prevented them from climbing higher up the table. A positive result against one of the division’s top sides could serve as a much-needed confidence boost as they aim to stabilize their season.

Monza’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Monza arrive in Padova in excellent form and full of confidence following a commanding 3-0 victory over Pescara on January 24. That result extended their impressive run, with three wins, one draw, and just one defeat in their last five matches. During this period, they have averaged 2.2 goals scored per game while conceding only one. Their overall season record of twelve wins, five draws, and four losses underlines their consistency and ambition to secure promotion to Serie A.

Ranked fourth in Serie B, Monza have built their success on a solid defensive foundation and clinical attacking play. They have not lost at half time in 23 of their last 25 matches, including 19 of their last 21 league games, a testament to their ability to control matches from the outset. Their balance between attack and defense has made them one of the most reliable teams in the division, and they will look to extend that record against a Padova side struggling for rhythm.

Monza’s away performances have also been noteworthy. While they have occasionally struggled to maintain the same level of dominance on the road, their overall consistency and squad depth make them strong favorites heading into this encounter. With a win probability of 45% compared to Padova’s 29%, the visitors are statistically favored to take all three points.

Head-to-Head and Tactical Overview

The recent head-to-head record between these two sides slightly favors Monza. Their last meeting ended in a 1-0 victory for the Brianzoli on September 27, 2025. However, historically, Calcio Padova have also enjoyed success in this fixture, with two wins and no draws or losses in previous encounters. The average scoreline in these meetings has been tight, with Padova averaging one goal scored and none conceded per match.

Given both teams’ current form, this match is likely to be a tactical battle. Padova’s recent trend of low-scoring games contrasts with Monza’s attacking efficiency, setting up an interesting dynamic. The hosts will aim to stay compact and exploit set pieces or counterattacks, while the visitors are expected to dominate possession and look for early breakthroughs. The statistics suggest that the first half could be decisive — Monza’s strong starts and Padova’s early struggles may well determine the outcome.

• Padova have lost three of their last five matches.


• Monza have scored an average of 2.2 goals per game in their last five fixtures.


• Under 3.5 goals in each of Padova’s last 12 Serie B matches.


• Over 0.5 goals at half time in 18 of Padova’s last 20 home games.


• Monza have not trailed at half time in 23 of their last 25 matches.

Padova vs Monza Prediction and Final Analysis

All indicators point toward a challenging evening for Calcio Padova. Their recent form and defensive fragility contrast sharply with Monza’s momentum and attacking prowess. The visitors’ ability to maintain control and avoid early setbacks gives them a clear edge. While Padova will rely on home support to lift their performance, Monza’s superior consistency and quality across the pitch make them the more likely winners.

Considering the statistical trends — including Monza’s strong record at half time and Padova’s struggles to score freely — a low-scoring match could be on the cards. However, the visitors’ efficiency in front of goal and their solid defensive structure suggest they are well-positioned to secure another victory.

Padova vs Monza prediction by BetMines:
Monza win (2) with a 45% probability.