The upcoming clash between Casa Pia and Arouca promises to be one of the most intriguing fixtures of the 22nd round of the Liga Portugal Betclic. Scheduled for Saturday afternoon, this encounter at the Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior brings together two sides separated by just four points in the lower half of the table. Both teams are eager to extend their positive momentum and move further away from the relegation zone. Casa Pia, under the guidance of Álvaro Pacheco, have shown signs of improvement in recent weeks, while Arouca arrive full of confidence after a thrilling comeback victory in their last outing.

Casa Pia’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Casa Pia currently sit 15th in the Liga Portugal standings with 19 points, just two above the relegation play-off zone. Their recent form has been mixed, with one win, two draws and two defeats in their last five matches. The team’s average of 1.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per game highlights both their attacking potential and defensive vulnerabilities. In their most recent fixture, Casa Pia earned a goalless draw away to Nacional on February 8, showing improved defensive discipline after a dramatic 3-3 draw against AVS and a stunning 2-1 home win over league leaders FC Porto.

Throughout the season, Casa Pia have recorded 4 wins, 7 draws and 10 defeats, scoring an average of 1.1 goals per match while conceding 1.9. Their defensive structure, often built around a three-centre-back system, has provided greater stability in recent weeks. João Goulart’s performances have been particularly impressive in the absence of José Fonte, while attacking players such as Larrazabal, Livolant and Cassiano continue to offer creativity and pace in the final third. The team will aim to extend their unbeaten run to four matches and reach the 22-point mark, a crucial step in their fight for survival.

• Casa Pia are unbeaten in their last three league matches.


• Under 0.5 total goals were recorded in 2 of their last 10 Liga Portugal games.


• They have scored in 8 of their last 10 home fixtures.

Arouca’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Arouca have been one of the most improved sides in the league since the turn of the year. Currently 12th with 23 points, they are just five points away from the top half of the table. Their recent form is encouraging: three wins and two defeats in their last five matches, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game. The team’s resilience was on full display in their last match, a 3-2 home victory over Vitória Guimarães on February 7. After trailing 0-2 within half an hour, Arouca mounted a remarkable comeback, sealed by a late goal from Hyunju Lee.

Over the course of the season, Arouca have registered 6 wins, 5 draws and 10 defeats, with an average of 1.2 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per match. Their attacking play has been driven by Alfonso Trezza and Naïs Djouahra, who have been instrumental in creating chances, while forward Barbero has found form at the right time, scoring three goals in his last four appearances. Despite missing Pedro Santos and Mateo Flores, Arouca’s squad remains strong and motivated to continue their climb up the table.

• Arouca have won their last two away matches in the league.


• They have scored at least once in 8 of their last 10 games.


• BTTS has occurred in 54% of their matches this season.

Head-to-Head and Tactical Overview

Historically, Casa Pia have enjoyed the upper hand in this fixture, with four wins and one draw in their last five meetings against Arouca. However, the most recent encounter ended in a 0-2 defeat for Casa Pia on September 14, 2025, showing that Arouca are capable of upsetting their rivals. The average scoreline between these sides has been low-scoring, with Casa Pia averaging 1.4 goals and conceding just 0.2 per match in their previous head-to-heads.

From a tactical perspective, Casa Pia’s compact defensive setup will aim to contain Arouca’s dynamic attack, while the visitors will look to exploit spaces on the counter. Both teams have shown a willingness to play positive football, and given their recent scoring trends, this match could produce several goals. Casa Pia’s home advantage and Arouca’s attacking momentum suggest a balanced and entertaining contest.

Casa Pia vs Arouca Prediction

Considering both teams’ recent form and statistical trends, this fixture is expected to be open and competitive. Casa Pia’s improved defense will be tested by an Arouca side that has scored in most of their recent matches. With both teams averaging over one goal per game and the Over 2.5 goals outcome showing a 54% probability, the most likely scenario points towards a lively encounter with goals at both ends.

Casa Pia vs Arouca prediction from BetMines: Over 2.5 goals with 54% probability.