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Celje
6:15 PM
August 11, 2026
Ararat-Armenia
Prediction published on Aug 9, 2026 7:07 PM by Dario in Europe - Champions League | Modified on Aug 9, 2026 7:07 PM
Celje welcome Ararat-Armenia on Tuesday, August 11, 2026, for the second leg of their Champions League third qualifying-round contest. The Slovenian champions return home needing to overturn a 2-1 first-leg defeat in Yerevan. Celje have reached a European knockout stage in each of the previous two seasons, but extending that sequence requires another difficult qualifying-round recovery. Ararat-Armenia, the Armenian champions, arrive with a narrow advantage and a stronger recent win record, although their away results in this summer’s qualifiers provide encouragement for the hosts. With Celje required to chase victory and Ararat-Armenia seeking to protect their lead, the return match has a clear competitive edge.
Celje prepared for this decisive home fixture by defeating Olimpija 1-0 on August 8. That result ended a five-match period without a victory and delivered a timely boost on the same ground where they must now attempt to overcome Ararat-Armenia. Their last five matches have produced one win, three draws and one defeat, underlining how difficult they have been to beat despite struggling to turn balanced games into victories.
Across those five fixtures, Celje have averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match. Their Champions League campaign has brought no wins, two draws and one defeat, with averages of 1.7 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. Those figures show that the Slovenian side have offered an attacking threat in Europe, but they have also allowed opponents enough opportunities to make their qualifying path complicated.
The previous round demonstrated Celje’s resilience. They drew with Egnatia across both legs before progressing through a penalty shootout, proving capable of remaining composed in a close European contest. They now face a different task because a draw over 90 minutes would not be enough to reverse the first-leg score. The hosts must apply pressure while avoiding the kind of defensive openings that could make the deficit more difficult to recover.
One particularly strong attacking trend supports Celje’s hopes: they have scored at least one goal in each of their last 17 matches. There has also been at least one first-half goal in 25 of their previous 26 fixtures, suggesting that their games frequently produce an early breakthrough. In contrast, fewer than 7.5 corners were recorded in each of Celje’s last four matches and in each of their last four home games. The central challenge is therefore not simply creating activity, but converting their attacking moments efficiently enough to change the tie.
Ararat-Armenia enter the second leg with both an aggregate advantage and strong recent momentum. They defeated Urartu 2-1 on August 7, extending a sequence in which they have won their last three games. Their record across the latest five fixtures stands at four victories and one defeat, with averages of 2.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match. Compared with Celje’s recent sequence, the visitors have been far more consistent at turning performances into wins.
Their Champions League numbers are also positive. Ararat-Armenia have collected three wins and two defeats, scoring an average of 1.8 goals and conceding 1.2 per game. They have won three qualifying matches during the summer, including the first leg against Celje. That 2-1 success gives them control of the contest, but it does not remove the pressure of defending a one-goal lead away from home.
The visitors’ home and away performances provide the most important contrast. All three of their qualifying victories this summer came in Yerevan. On the road, they suffered a 2-1 defeat against Shamrock Rovers and a 3-2 loss against Riga, meaning both of their away qualifying games ended in defeat. Those results also show that Ararat-Armenia scored in each match, so Celje cannot assume that home advantage alone will keep the visitors quiet.
Ararat-Armenia’s objective is more straightforward than that of their opponents: preserve the advantage earned in the opening meeting. However, their two away defeats indicate that managing the tie outside Yerevan may be more demanding than their recent overall form suggests. If Celje score, the visitors may need to respond rather than relying exclusively on the first-leg result.
This second leg brings together two contrasting statistical stories. Celje have only one victory in their last five matches, but three draws during that period highlight their resistance, while the recent win over Olimpija may have restored confidence at an ideal moment. Ararat-Armenia have won four of their last five and hold the lead, yet their only two away qualifying appearances both resulted in defeat.
The first meeting, won 2-1 by Ararat-Armenia on August 4, demonstrated that the margin between the teams is narrow. The available head-to-head summary gives Celje no wins, one draw and one loss, with averages of 0.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Even so, Celje’s run of scoring in 17 consecutive matches means the hosts have a clear basis for believing they can challenge the aggregate score.
The opening stages could be especially significant. Celje’s first-half goal trend points toward the possibility of an early change in the contest, while Ararat-Armenia’s scoring record away to Shamrock Rovers and Riga shows they can remain dangerous despite losing. The hosts need urgency because they trail, but uncontrolled pressure could offer the visitors opportunities to exploit. Ararat-Armenia, meanwhile, must balance protecting their advantage with maintaining enough attacking ambition to prevent Celje from controlling the match.
Recent form favors the Armenian champions, whereas venue-specific qualifying results give the Slovenian champions reason for optimism. Celje’s home victory over Olimpija ended their winless spell immediately before this return leg, but Ararat-Armenia travel after three consecutive wins. That tension between the hosts’ renewed confidence and the visitors’ broader momentum should define a closely contested Champions League qualifier in which the next goal could significantly reshape the tie.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Celje
Ararat-Armenia
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
0
10
0
10
1.5
2
8
1
9
2.5
6
4
5
5
3.5
7
3
8
2
4.5
8
2
8
2