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Celje
2 - 2
FT_PEN
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Prediction published on Jul 27, 2026 12:03 AM by Dario in Europe - Champions League | Modified on Jul 27, 2026 12:03 AM
Celje and Egnatia Rrogozhinë meet in the return leg of their Champions League second qualifying-round tie after an eventful 3-3 draw on July 22, 2026. Celje recovered from conceding early and moved ahead twice in the opening encounter, but they could not protect either advantage. Egnatia responded each time, with substitute Ibrahim Diabate scoring in the 78th minute to complete the comeback. That result leaves the contest finely balanced and places additional focus on two productive attacks and two defences that have regularly allowed chances. The available Champions League ranking lists Celje first and Egnatia second, but the six-goal first leg suggests that neither side can approach this decisive match with much room for complacency.
Celje enter the second leg unbeaten across their last five matches, recording one victory and four draws. They have averaged 2.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded during that sequence, figures that underline both their attacking consistency and their defensive vulnerability. Their Champions League record this season currently stands at one draw from one match, with averages of three goals scored and three allowed following the opening meeting with Egnatia.
The hosts have already had to recover from losing positions in both of their competitive fixtures this season. Before the 3-3 draw in this tie, they began with a 2-2 draw against Mura. Across those two games, Celje have therefore scored five times but have also conceded five. Their response after falling behind has been encouraging, yet the inability to secure either result after producing multiple goals is an issue they must address in the return fixture.
The wider scoring sequence provides a stronger source of optimism. Celje have found the net at least once in each of their last 13 matches, while their previous 22 games have all produced at least one first-half goal. The same early-scoring pattern has appeared in each of their last 11 home fixtures. Celje have also led at half time in nine of their last 13 matches and in seven of their previous 11 at home, although they have been behind at the interval in their last three home games. In addition, 21 of their last 22 fixtures have not been level at half time, pointing towards first halves that frequently establish a clear direction.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë arrive with two wins, two draws and one defeat from their last five matches. Their average of 3.0 goals scored per game over that period exceeds their average of 1.8 conceded, illustrating the attacking output that helped them rescue the first leg. They have been involved in the Champions League since the first qualifying round and remain unbeaten in this season’s competition, registering one win and two draws.
Across those three Champions League matches, Egnatia have averaged 3.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded. The source article records a total of 10 goals for them in the qualifiers, but they have failed to keep a clean sheet in every one of those appearances. Their overall recent record presents a similar picture: the 3-3 draw left Egnatia with only one clean sheet across five competitive outings, while both sides found the net in six of their previous 10 competitive fixtures.
Egnatia’s ability to stay in the first leg was particularly significant because they repeatedly had to respond to Celje taking control. Diabate’s late contribution ensured that the tie remained level and demonstrated that the visitors could continue posing a threat deep into the contest. However, their attacking sharpness has not been matched by comparable defensive security. Every one of their last 16 matches has contained more than 1.5 total goals, and each of their previous 15 fixtures has produced at least one goal before half time. Those sequences reinforce the expectation of another match in which important moments may arrive early.
The first leg established a clear theme for this return meeting. Both teams carried a regular threat but struggled to manage the match once ahead or under pressure. Celje can take confidence from overturning an early deficit and scoring three times, while Egnatia showed resilience by twice cancelling out a home advantage and eventually earning the draw. At the same time, neither side will be satisfied with the space or opportunities conceded during that six-goal encounter.
Celje’s recent numbers suggest that their best route into the match is through the attacking consistency that has delivered goals in 13 consecutive fixtures. Their strong record of half-time leads also shows that they are capable of making an early impact. The concern is that five goals conceded across their first two competitive matches have prevented them from turning positive attacking performances into victories. Greater control after moving in front could therefore be decisive.
Egnatia face a comparable challenge. Their 10 Champions League goals demonstrate substantial attacking productivity, and their unbeaten continental record confirms that they have repeatedly found ways to remain competitive. Nevertheless, conceding in all three qualifying games means another comeback may be required if their defensive record does not improve. With both teams averaging at least two goals scored across their respective recent five-match samples, the contest brings together two sides whose strengths have been concentrated in attack rather than in keeping opponents out.
The head-to-head record consists of the single 3-3 draw, leaving Celje with no wins, one draw and no defeats against Egnatia, as well as matching averages of three goals scored and three conceded. Combined with the repeated first-half scoring trends and the lack of clean sheets highlighted in the available data, the second leg is set up as an open and closely balanced contest. The principal question is not whether either team can create opportunities, but whether Celje or Egnatia can finally add enough defensive discipline to their attacking quality to take control of the tie.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Celje
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
0
10
1
9
1.5
2
8
1
9
2.5
6
4
3
7
3.5
8
2
5
5
4.5
9
1
7
3