Celtic will be desperate to secure their first victory in the Europa League group stage when they welcome Sturm Graz to Glasgow. After two rounds, the Scottish champions sit 29th in the overall standings, while the Austrian side occupy 23rd place. Both teams began their European campaigns in the Champions League qualifiers but now find themselves battling for progress in the Europa League. For Celtic, this fixture represents a crucial opportunity to get their continental season back on track and climb above their visitors in the table.

Celtic’s Recent Form and Key Stats

The start of the 2025/26 season has been far from ideal for Celtic. Domestically, they are second in the Scottish Premiership, five points behind leaders Hearts, following a disappointing 2-0 defeat to Dundee on October 19. In their last five matches across all competitions, the Hoops have recorded just one win, two draws, and two defeats, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game. Their inconsistency has been evident both in attack and defense, and manager Brendan Rodgers will be under pressure to deliver a response at Celtic Park.

In the Europa League, Celtic have collected only one point from their opening two fixtures. They began with a 1-1 draw away to Red Star Belgrade, a match in which they initially led, before falling 2-0 at home to Braga. Despite that setback, Celtic’s home record remains relatively strong — they have lost only once in their last 11 home league and cup games. Historically, Celtic’s European nights at Parkhead have been defined by intensity and crowd energy, and they will need both to overcome a Sturm Graz side that has struggled away from home.

Statistically, Celtic’s matches tend to produce goals. There have been Over 0.5 goals in each of their last 22 Europa League games and Over 1.5 goals in the last 18. At home, the trend continues, with Over 1.5 goals in their last 10 Europa League fixtures. However, their defensive lapses have also been costly, as they have failed to keep a clean sheet in several recent outings. Rodgers is expected to make changes following the Dundee defeat, with James Forrest, Michel Ange Balikwisha, and Arne Engels all pushing for starts. On the injury front, Alistair Johnston, Jota, and Daizen Maeda remain unavailable.

Sturm Graz’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Sturm Graz arrive in Scotland in excellent domestic form. They top the Austrian Bundesliga after a thrilling 4-3 away win over Blau-Weiß Linz on October 19, extending their winning streak to four matches. In their last five games, they have recorded four victories and one defeat, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. Their attacking play has been spearheaded by Otar Kiteishvili, who has already netted eight goals this season and will be a key threat once again.

However, their European away record remains a major concern. Sturm Graz have lost their last six away fixtures in continental competition, conceding 12 goals without reply in the most recent three. In this Europa League phase, they opened with a 2-0 defeat at Midtjylland before bouncing back with a 2-1 home win against Rangers. Their inability to perform on the road has been a recurring issue — they have failed to win in 20 of their last 21 away European matches and have not drawn any of their last 15 games overall. Despite their domestic dominance, replicating that form abroad has proven difficult.

In terms of match patterns, Over 0.5 goals have been scored in each of Sturm Graz’s last 40 matches, and Over 1.5 goals in their last 11 away games. They are also known for lively second halves, with Over 0.5 goals after the break in 29 of their last 32 matches. Coach Christian Ilzer will hope his side can finally break their away curse, though he must cope with several absentees — Daniil Khudyakov, Oliver Christensen, and Belmin Beganovic are all sidelined through injury.

Celtic vs Sturm Graz Prediction and Tactical Overview

This Europa League clash pits two teams with contrasting fortunes at home and away. Celtic have been inconsistent but remain difficult to beat at Parkhead, while Sturm Graz have been prolific domestically yet fragile on their travels in Europe. The Scottish champions will look to dominate possession and exploit their home advantage, especially through wide players like Forrest and Balikwisha, while Sturm Graz will rely on quick transitions and the finishing ability of Kiteishvili.

Given the attacking tendencies of both sides and their defensive vulnerabilities, an open contest could unfold. Celtic’s need for a win is urgent, and their home crowd could make the difference. Sturm Graz’s poor away record — six straight European defeats — suggests they may struggle once again on foreign soil. The Hoops’ superior experience and motivation to stay alive in the group stage make them slight favorites to claim all three points.

Celtic vs Sturm Graz prediction by BetMines:
The most likely outcome is a Celtic win (1) with a 61% probability. The Draw (X) follows at 20%, while a Sturm Graz win (2) stands at 19%.