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Prediction published on Aug 14, 2026 2:03 PM by Dario in Brazil - Serie A | Modified on Aug 14, 2026 2:03 PM
Chapecoense host Bahia on Sunday, August 16, 2026, in the 23rd round of the Brazilian Serie A. The match at Arena Condá brings together two teams searching for a change in momentum, although their overall situations are very different. Chapecoense sit 20th after recording only one victory in 21 league matches, while sixth-placed Bahia have collected 33 points from 22 fixtures. The visitors have drawn their last four games, but their defensive consistency contrasts sharply with a home side that has conceded in 15 consecutive Serie A matches.
Chapecoense returned to the top flight after competing in Serie B last season, but their Serie A campaign has become increasingly difficult. Their league record currently stands at one win, seven draws and 13 defeats, leaving them bottom of the standings with 10 points. They are also 13 points behind Internacional, identified as the first team outside the relegation zone.
The home side have gone 20 Serie A matches without a victory since winning their opening fixture. Across their last five matches, they have registered no wins, two draws and three losses, scoring an average of 0.6 goals while conceding 2.0 per game. Their broader league averages are 1.0 goal scored and 2.1 conceded, figures that underline the imbalance between their attacking output and defensive record.
Chapecoense most recently lost 2-1 away to Coritiba on August 8. That result followed a 2-0 defeat against Cruzeiro in the second leg of their Copa do Brasil round-of-16 tie, which ended their participation in that competition. Their home record has not provided enough relief either, with only seven points collected as hosts in the tournament.
The opening stages have been another recurring problem. Chapecoense have failed to lead at half time in their last 21 Serie A fixtures and have been behind at the interval in each of their previous four league games. Across all competitions, they have not held a half-time advantage in 24 of their last 25 matches. They have also failed to win 23 of their most recent 24 games, while conceding at least once in each of their last 15 league outings.
Max Alves, Rafael Carvalheira, Victor Caetano and Bolasie are unavailable through injury. Bruno Tubarão is also receiving medical treatment, although his status for the match has not been confirmed. Rafael Lacerda therefore approaches the contest with both a long winless run and several absences to manage.
Bahia arrive in sixth place with a season record of eight wins, nine draws and five defeats. Their league averages stand at 1.3 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per match. Although they have not won any of their last four fixtures, they remain unbeaten across their latest five games, recording one victory and four draws during that sequence.
Their most recent appearance ended in a 0-0 home draw against Vasco da Gama on August 9. Before that result, Bahia had also shared the points with Atlético-MG, Fluminense and Corinthians. This run has slowed their effort to return to the Copa Libertadores qualification places, but the team has continued to show resilience without the ball.
Bahia have conceded only two goals across their last five matches and have kept three clean sheets during that period. Those shutouts include the previous meeting with Chapecoense, which Bahia won 2-0 on July 17. However, the visitors have not scored in their last two Serie A games, meaning their defensive strength has recently been accompanied by a lack of attacking production.
Erick Pulga is available again after serving a suspension in the previous round. The visitors nevertheless have confirmed absentees of their own. Ademir is injured and also received his third yellow card in the last match, while Luciano Juba, Everton Ribeiro and Léo Vieira are sidelined through injury.
Another notable feature of Bahia’s league matches has been the corner count, with more than 7.5 corners recorded in 27 of their last 29 Serie A fixtures. Their immediate priority, however, will be turning a sequence of draws into a more productive result while maintaining the defensive standard seen over the last five games.
The statistical contrast is clear ahead of this Brazilian Serie A fixture. Chapecoense have struggled for results, have repeatedly fallen behind before half time and continue to allow at least one goal in every league match. Bahia have also experienced frustration through four successive draws, yet they enter the contest unbeaten in five and with a substantially stronger defensive record over that span.
The previous meeting offers additional context. Bahia secured a 2-0 victory in July without conceding, while the broader head-to-head summary gives Chapecoense two wins and Bahia three, with no draws. Across those meetings, Chapecoense have averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. For the hosts, improving their efficiency in both penalty areas will be essential. For the visitors, the challenge is to turn territorial and defensive control into goals after consecutive scoreless league matches.
Pressure surrounds both teams, but for different reasons. Chapecoense urgently need points to address their position at the bottom, whereas Bahia are attempting to prevent a run of draws from further slowing their campaign. The home side’s poor first-half record could make the early phase especially important, while Bahia’s recent clean sheets suggest that breaking the visitors down may require patience and greater precision than Chapecoense have shown in recent weeks.
Chapecoense: Anderson; Kauan Faria, Eduardo Doma, Everton, Fernando; Camilo, Bruno Matias, Túlio Eduardo, Giovanni Augusto; Rubens, Marcinho.
Bahia: Ronaldo; Román Gómez, David Duarte, Ramos Mingo, Zé Guilherme; Acevedo, Jean Lucas or Erick, Rodrigo Nestor; Erick Pulga
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Chapecoense
Bahia
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
1
9
2
8
1.5
2
8
2
8
2.5
4
6
6
4
3.5
7
3
8
2
4.5
10
0
8
2