Although not separated by a fierce historical rivalry, Chelsea and Crystal Palace face off on Sunday, August 17, in what will be the first London derby of the 2025/26 Premier League season. The home side are coming off an unforgettable campaign, crowned with victory in the FIFA Club World Cup. The project of entrusting the team’s tactical direction to Enzo Maresca, in his first experience as head coach of a top club, has paid off. The Italian coach, former assistant to Pep Guardiola at Manchester City, also secured qualification for the UEFA Champions League and won the UEFA Europa Conference League, allowing Chelsea to be the only club to have all three European trophies in their cabinet. After such a season, the aim is to consolidate themselves among the top forces in the Premier League and go as far as possible in the Champions League. From the transfer market, important reinforcements have arrived, especially in attack, such as Joao Pedro, Estevao, Delap, and Gittens, while Madueke and Joao Felix have left. Crystal Palace started their season last weekend by winning the FA Community Shield after defeating Liverpool on penalties. For the Eagles, this was their second trophy in just a few months, following their FA Cup triumph on May 17, when they beat Manchester City in the final. Thanks to their FA Cup success, the Glaziers earned the right to participate in the UEFA Europa League, but due to a conflict of interest involving the majority owner, UEFA decided to relegate them to the UEFA Conference League. This decision undoubtedly created tension and could disrupt Crystal Palace’s start to the season, as well as potential transfer negotiations. Participation in the Conference League makes the club less attractive to incoming players and could push some key players to seek opportunities elsewhere.

Chelsea's Recent Form and Key Stats

After winning the FIFA Club World Cup on July 13 (a 3-0 victory in the final against PSG), Enzo Maresca’s men have had little time to prepare for the new season. In their last friendly, Chelsea beat AC Milan 4-1, while in the one before they defeated Bayer Leverkusen 2-0.

For the match against Crystal Palace, the Italian coach will be without the suspended Nicolas Jackson in attack and the injured Levi Colwill in defence. The conditions of Badiashile, Lavia, and Fofana will be monitored until the last moment. Mudryk remains unavailable due to a long suspension from last season.

In the 2024/25 Premier League, the Blues finished fourth with 69 points, from 20 wins, 9 draws, and 9 losses. The attack averaged 1.7 goals per game, while the defence was hard to break down, conceding just 1.1 goals per game.

Crystal Palace's Recent Form and Key Stats

Crystal Palace’s season began with an unexpected joy: winning the Community Shield after defeating Premier League champions Liverpool on penalties. The Eagles, during regular time, showed great character by coming from behind twice—first with Mateta, then with Sarr—making it 2-2 and forcing the Reds into a penalty shootout.

Regarding possible absences against Chelsea, Oliver Glasner will be without injured players Riad, Nketiah, and Doucouré. Kamada, Matheus Franca, and Kporha are also doubtful. In attack, Mateta is expected to start despite ongoing transfer rumours linking him away from London.

Crystal Palace finished last season in 12th place with 53 points, from 13 wins, 14 draws, and 11 defeats. Over the course of the 2024/25 Premier League, they scored and conceded the same number of goals: 51, averaging 1.3 goals scored and conceded per match, showing they are a balanced team in both defence and attack.

Chelsea vs Crystal Palace prediction and tactical overview

According to BetMines’ algorithm, the Chelsea vs Crystal Palace prediction points to a clear victory for Enzo Maresca’s side, fresh from their FIFA Club World Cup win and eager to start the season with a win.

The Blues, defeated only once in their last 10 matches, also have the home advantage, having gone unbeaten in their last 10 Premier League games at Stamford Bridge. Furthermore, Chelsea have won eight of their last nine home meetings against Crystal Palace, with the only exception being a draw last September.

From a tactical perspective, Maresca’s team will focus obsessively on ball possession to create calculated goal-scoring opportunities through intricate passing in the final third. Key difference-makers could be Joao Pedro, already decisive in the Club World Cup, and Cole Palmer, as always free to roam across the attacking front in search of space for himself and his teammates.

Crystal Palace, on the other hand, will aim to withstand the hosts’ attacks, dropping their two wide midfielders deep to form a back five when out of possession. Glasner’s weapon to break through Chelsea’s solid defence will be the counter-attacks of the front three—Eze, Sarr, and Mateta—lethal in open space.

In addition to the home win (1), the BetMines algorithm predicts a match with goals but fewer than four in total. Recent head-to-heads have been tight affairs, often decided by narrow margins, with the Under 3.5 goals outcome occurring in eight of the last nine meetings.

• Chelsea vs Crystal Palace prediction by BetMines: Chelsea to win (1) with 62% probability
  
  
• Chelsea vs Crystal Palace prediction by BetMines: Under 3.5 goals with 66% probability

Probable lineups Chelsea vs Crystal Palace

CHELSEA (4-2-3-1): Sanchez; James, Tosin, Chalobah, Cucurella; Enzo, Caicedo; Neto, Palmer, Gittens; Joao Pedro. Coach: Enzo Maresca

CRYSTAL PALACE (3-4-3): Henderson; Richards, Lacroix, Guehi; Munoz, Wharton, Hughes, Mitchell; Sarr, Mateta, Eze. Coach: Oliver Glasner