Chelsea host Tottenham Hotspur at Stamford Bridge on October 24 in a Premier League London derby between teams with contrasting starts to the season. Chelsea are fourth after seven matches, while Tottenham sit 16th. Both arrive following victories: the Blues beat Everton 2-0 away, and Spurs defeated Coventry City 3-1. Chelsea have the stronger league record and have won four of the last five head-to-head meetings, but Tottenham’s recent away matches and both sides’ underlying attacking numbers give this fixture more than one angle to consider.

Chelsea’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Chelsea have taken 13 points from their opening seven Premier League games, recording four wins, one draw and two defeats. Across their last five matches, they have won three, drawn one and lost one, scoring an average of 3.0 goals while conceding 1.8. Their latest result was a 2-0 victory at Everton on October 17, when they restricted their opponents to 0.47 expected goals. It was also Chelsea’s first Premier League clean sheet since January 2026.

Goals have been a regular feature of Chelsea’s matches: their last 12 Premier League fixtures have each contained more than 1.5 total goals, while their last 12 matches have each featured at least one second-half goal. Keeping opponents out has been much less common. Before the Everton result, Chelsea had conceded at least once in 22 of their previous 23 league matches. Their season averages stand at 2.4 goals scored and 1.9 conceded per Premier League game.

The Blues’ attacking output deserves attention, although it has exceeded their chance creation so far. They have scored 17 league goals from 9.9 expected goals, including five in a 5-1 home win over Brentford that produced 1.10 expected goals. Joao Pedro has contributed five goals in six appearances and added three assists, while Cole Palmer leads Chelsea with 15 chances created, including six big chances.

There are also personnel concerns for Chelsea. Emi Martinez faces around two months out after suffering a fractured jaw against Everton, with 21-year-old Mike Penders in line for another appearance. Reece James is ruled out until January, while Malo Gusto, Jamie Gittens, Pep Chavarria and Emanuel Emegha are doubts.

Tottenham Hotspur’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Tottenham Hotspur ended a six-match winless run across all competitions with their 3-1 home win over Coventry City on October 19. It was their first league victory of the campaign and moved them to six points from seven matches. Their Premier League record now reads one win, three draws and three defeats. Over their last five matches, Spurs have won once, drawn twice and lost twice, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded.

The Coventry result offered a lift, but Tottenham’s attacking figures suggest they still have work to do. They generated 0.86 expected goals and no big chances in that match despite scoring three times. Their six league goals are the joint-second-lowest total in the division, and they have averaged 0.9 goals scored per Premier League fixture, compared with 1.4 conceded. James Maddison marked his first start in more than 18 months with a long-range goal against Coventry, while Dejan Kulusevski made his first club appearance in 526 days.

Tottenham have kept their recent league trips relatively contained on the scoreboard: each of their last 10 Premier League away matches has finished under 3.5 total goals. That run may be relevant against a Chelsea side whose finishing has outpaced its expected-goals tally. Spurs also have defensive metrics in their favour, ranking fifth-best for expected goals against. However, Roberto De Zerbi has several unavailable players, including Pedro Porro, Destiny Udogie, Savio, Odobert and Mudryk.

Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur Match Analysis

The contrast between Chelsea’s results and Tottenham’s league record makes the hosts the stronger-looking side going into this derby. Chelsea have collected seven more points, won three of their last five matches and beaten Spurs in four of their last five meetings. The Blues’ win at Everton also showed a more secure defensive side than their longer run of conceded goals would suggest.

There is reason to be cautious about expecting Chelsea’s recent scoring rate to continue unchanged. They rank 12th in the Premier League for expected goals despite having scored 17 times, while Tottenham rank 18th for expected goals and have struggled to create clear openings. Spurs’ win over Coventry could improve their confidence, but their limited chance creation in that game points to a demanding test at Stamford Bridge.

For this Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur preview, the central question is whether Tottenham can turn their latest victory into a more convincing attacking performance. Chelsea’s stronger start and recent head-to-head record point toward the hosts, though Spurs’ defensive figures and sequence of lower-scoring away games suggest the contest need not be open from start to finish.

Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur prediction from BetMines: Chelsea win (1) with 55% probability.