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Prediction published on Sep 12, 2026 4:33 PM by Dario in Italy - Serie A | Modified on Sep 12, 2026 4:33 PM
Como welcome Parma to the Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia on September 14, 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 16:30 local time. This fourth-round Serie A fixture brings together teams that have made contrasting starts to the campaign. Como are fourth after collecting two wins and one draw, while Parma sit 17th with one point from three matches. The hosts will also be playing their first home league game of the season after earning all seven of their Serie A points away from home. Confidence is high following Thursday’s 4-1 Champions League victory over RB Leipzig, although the short turnaround adds another consideration for a squad competing on several fronts. Parma arrive after a 1-1 draw with Monza and will be looking to end a difficult away run against an opponent they have struggled to beat in recent meetings.
Como opened their Serie A campaign with a goalless draw against Udinese before recording consecutive victories over Napoli and Genoa. Their league record therefore stands at two wins, one draw and no defeats, with averages of 2.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per match. Across their last five fixtures in all competitions, they have registered three wins, one draw and one loss, scoring an average of 2.2 goals while allowing 1.2.
Their most recent performance was particularly emphatic. Como defeated RB Leipzig 4-1 on September 10 in their Champions League debut, extending their current winning sequence to three matches in all competitions. They have scored 10 goals across those three victories, while also leading at half-time in each of their last three games. That early-match statistic could be significant against a Parma side that rarely reaches the interval in front.
Como are also unbeaten in eight consecutive Serie A fixtures, producing six wins and two draws during that run. A victory here would give them three wins from their first four league games of the season, something the club has not achieved since 1951/52. Their previous home results provide further encouragement: Como won four of their final six home league matches last season, alongside one draw and one defeat.
Nico Paz, Douvikas and Baturina have been highlighted among Como’s influential attacking options, while Chalobah, Ricci and Kean were added to strengthen the squad. Nico Paz currently has 19 Serie A goals and could become the youngest outfield player to reach 20 in the three-points-for-a-win era. The existing mark belongs to Domenico Morfeo, who reached that total at 22 years and 23 days. Como have also attempted 26 shots from outside the box in their first three league games, matching Juventus for the highest total in Serie A. Jayden Addai is listed as the hosts’ only unavailable player.
Parma are still waiting for their first Serie A victory of the season. Their opening three matches have brought no wins, one draw and two defeats, with averages of only 0.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. The wider five-match sequence is also challenging: one victory, one draw and three losses, accompanied by averages of 0.6 goals for and 1.2 against.
The visitors drew 1-1 with Monza on September 6, with Simone Lontani scoring the second-half equaliser. At 18 years and 239 days, Lontani could now become the youngest player to score in consecutive matches during the same Serie A season since Mario Balotelli did so in March 2009 at 18 years and 207 days.
Parma’s away form is one of the main concerns before this trip. They have lost their last three Serie A away matches without scoring, and one of those defeats came against Como in May. Their attacking output from distance has also been limited: Parma have attempted only seven long-range shots across the opening three rounds, the joint-lowest figure in the league alongside Torino and Milan.
The first-half numbers further underline the challenge. Parma have not been ahead at the break in 25 of their last 27 Serie A fixtures, while their last 12 league matches have all contained fewer than 1.5 first-half goals. However, each of their last 13 Serie A games has produced at least one second-half goal. Nicolussi Caviglia and Bernabé are unavailable for this match.
COMO: Butez; Couto, Ramon, Chalobah, Valle; Perrone, Da Cunha; Diao, Nico Paz, Baturina; Kean.
PARMA (3-5-2): Corvi; Delprato, Troilo, Diego Carlos; Britschgi, Fabbian, Keita, Ordonez, Valeri; El Bilal Touré, Romero.
The recent head-to-head record supports Como. After losing their first Serie A meeting with Parma in September 2002, they remained unbeaten in the next five top-flight encounters, recording two wins and three draws. The latest meeting ended in a 1-0 Como victory on May 17, 2026. Across those five recent Serie A clashes, Como averaged 0.8 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded.
When Serie A and Serie B meetings are combined, Parma have lost two and drawn one of the last three encounters after suffering only one defeat in the previous 14. Como are also unbeaten in their last seven home matches against Parma across the two divisions, winning five and drawing two. Those figures strengthen the hosts’ position, even if recent meetings have generally produced modest scoring averages.
The statistical outlook gives Como a 65% win probability, compared with 22% for the draw and 13% for Parma. The hosts’ unbeaten league start, three consecutive victories in all competitions and stronger scoring average make them the more convincing side on current evidence. Parma, by contrast, have failed to score in three straight Serie A away games and have averaged just 0.3 goals per league match this season.
There are mixed signals around the goals markets. Three of Como’s last three matches have finished with over 2.5 goals, driven by their total of 10 goals during that sequence. However, the under 2.5-goal probability is narrowly higher at 52%, while Both Teams To Score (No) stands at 58%. Como’s recent attacking form may create opportunities, but Parma’s limited output and goalless away run point more clearly toward home control than an open contest between two productive attacks.
Como vs Parma prediction from BetMines: Como win (1) with 65% probability.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Como
Parma
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
1
9
0
10
1.5
1
9
2
8
2.5
5
5
9
1
3.5
7
3
10
0
4.5
7
3
10
0