Croatia host the Czech Republic on November 15 in the final round of UEFA Nations League Group A3, with kick-off scheduled for 19:45 local time. Croatia are third and their visitors fourth, and neither side can finish in the top two. The hosts have won once in five group matches, while the Czech Republic have lost all five. There is still an opportunity to end a difficult campaign on a better note, but both teams arrive after defeats on November 12. Croatia lost 2-1 away to England, and the Czech Republic were beaten 2-0 at home by Spain.

Croatia's Recent Form and Key Stats

Croatia have taken three points from their five Nations League matches, with one win and four defeats. Their victory came against the Czech Republic, but it has been followed by four consecutive losses. Across those five games, Croatia have scored five goals and conceded 16, averages of 1.0 scored and 3.2 conceded per match. The 2-1 defeat to England continued that run, leaving the hosts looking for a response in their final group fixture.

The defensive figures are Croatia’s clearest concern. Conceding 16 goals in five matches has made it difficult for them to build on the result they earned against this opponent earlier in the campaign. At the other end, they have scored in their five-match spell often enough to average a goal per game, though that return has brought only one victory. This meeting gives Croatia another chance to test that balance against a side that has also struggled throughout the group.

There are goal-related trends in Croatia’s wider record. Their last 12 home matches have all featured over 1.5 total goals, while each of their last 14 matches has produced at least one second-half goal. Croatia have also avoided a draw in 20 of their last 21 matches. Those figures do not settle how this fixture will finish, but they provide context for a home side whose recent games have rarely ended level.

Czech Republic's Recent Form and Key Stats

The Czech Republic have yet to collect a point in Group A3. Five defeats from five matches have left them fourth, with two goals scored and 12 conceded. Their averages stand at 0.4 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per match. The latest setback was a 2-0 home loss to Spain, so the visitors travel to Croatia seeking their first positive result of the group campaign.

Finding a goal has been a challenge across those five fixtures, although one of the Czech Republic’s two goals came against Croatia. Their record in this particular away fixture offers another point of interest: they have scored in each of their four previous away matches against the hosts. That history must be weighed against their current Nations League return, rather than treated as a guarantee that they will score again.

The Czech Republic’s matches have nevertheless consistently cleared a modest goals threshold: their last 13 matches have each featured over 1.5 total goals. At least one second-half goal has also been scored in each of those 13 games. Their first-half results tell a more difficult story, with the Czech Republic behind at half-time in their last three Nations League matches and in seven of their last 10 away games in the competition.

Croatia vs Czech Republic Match Analysis

The group record gives Croatia the stronger case for a win. They are one place above the Czech Republic, have already beaten them during this campaign and remain unbeaten across the five head-to-head meetings listed in the supplied record, with two wins and three draws. Croatia’s recent four-match losing run, however, makes it difficult to overlook their own problems. The Czech Republic have fared worse in the group, losing every match and conceding more than twice per game on average.

Goals are central to this Croatia vs Czech Republic preview. Croatia’s five group matches have brought 21 total goals, largely because they have conceded 16; the Czech Republic’s five have brought 14. The head-to-head record lists averages of 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded by Croatia, while the most recent meeting finished 2-1. Alongside the hosts’ 12-match home run of games with at least two total goals and the visitors’ corresponding 13-match overall run, those figures make the total-goals market a relevant way to assess the finale.

Neither team can reach the top two, but there is still a distinction between Croatia finishing with a second group win and the Czech Republic avoiding a sixth straight defeat. Croatia have the better head-to-head record; the visitors can point to their scoring history in away meetings with Croatia. With both sides conceding regularly in this Nations League campaign, the evidence supports the possibility of another match featuring several goals, even if neither team’s recent results offer much certainty about the winner.

Croatia vs Czech Republic prediction from BetMines: Over 2.5 goals with 57% probability.