Croatia host England at Stadion HNK Rijeka on Saturday, October 3, in a UEFA Nations League Group A4 meeting between two sides seeking a second win in the competition. Croatia opened with a 2-1 victory over the Czech Republic before losing 4-1 to Spain, while England recovered from a 3-2 defeat against Spain by beating the Czechs 2-0 away from home. The visitors have won the last three meetings between these teams, including a 4-2 result at the 2026 World Cup. Croatia’s strong home record, however, gives them reason to expect a closer contest this time. The unusual setting could also matter: Croatian supporters are banned from attending, although 100 travelling England fans have been permitted into the stadium.

Croatia’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Croatia return home after a difficult night against Spain on September 29. They had 36% possession and produced 0.47 expected goals in the 4-1 defeat, with Dion Beljo scoring their only goal. Across their first two Nations League matches, Croatia have one win and one loss, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 2.5 conceded. Their last five matches in all competitions have brought three victories and two defeats, with averages of 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 allowed.

Home results offer a more encouraging picture. Croatia have won 10 of their last 14 matches on home soil across all competitions, drawing three and losing just once. That defeat came against Belgium in a June friendly. They have also scored at least twice in six of their last seven home games. The figures point to a side capable of responding offensively, even after the setback in Spain. Croatia’s last 10 home matches have each featured more than 1.5 total goals, while their last 11 matches have all included a second-half goal.

Beljo has 18 goal contributions in 13 appearances for club and country this term, adding to the interest in Croatia’s attacking response. Head coach Slaven Bilić has said that Luka Modrić will not start every game in this international window; Modrić played nine minutes off the bench against Spain. Josip Stanišić missed that match through illness and could return, while Josip Juranović and Martin Erlić withdrew before the competition with Achilles and foot injuries respectively. Croatia will look to draw on their home record without the usual backing from their supporters.

England’s Recent Form and Key Stats

England arrive after their first Nations League victory under Thomas Tuchel. Their 2-0 win over the Czech Republic on September 29 followed an opening 3-2 loss to Spain in which they had led 2-1. In Prague, England finished with 66% possession, 22 shots, three big chances and 1.48 expected goals. It was also their first clean sheet since the group stage of the World Cup.

The Three Lions have won two, drawn one and lost two of their last five matches, averaging 2.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. Their Nations League record stands at one win and one defeat, with averages of 2.0 goals for and 1.5 against. Their away scoring run is particularly relevant here: England have scored in their last 19 away matches. Excluding the 2026 World Cup, they have won eight consecutive away games since July 2024 and kept six clean sheets during that sequence. They have also avoided a half-time deficit in each of their last 16 away fixtures.

Harry Kane scored twice against Croatia at the World Cup in June and took his England tally to 87 goals against the Czech Republic. He has eight goals and two assists in his last seven matches for Bayern Munich and England. Anthony Gordon has scored in both of England’s Nations League games and has six goal contributions across his last eight starts for club and country. Tuchel said Jude Bellingham had a “little niggle” late in the Czech Republic match, while Ezri Konsa and Nico O’Reilly missed that game with muscle issues. All three are doubts for Saturday.

Croatia vs England Match Analysis

The recent head-to-head record favors England: from Croatia’s perspective, the last five meetings have produced no wins, two draws and three defeats. England’s 4-2 World Cup victory is the latest example, but Croatia’s 10 wins in 14 home matches make this a different test from one played on neutral ground. The absence of Croatian fans changes that home setting, though it does not erase the hosts’ recent scoring record there.

There are several reasons this UEFA Nations League fixture could produce goals. Croatia have scored at least twice in six of their last seven home games, and England have found the net in 19 straight away matches. Neither side kept a clean sheet against Spain in its opening Nations League game, while their most recent meeting ended 4-2. England’s clean sheet in Prague shows they can control a match, but Croatia’s home output and both teams’ available attacking statistics leave room for chances at either end. With each side trying to build on one win from its first two group games, the goals market offers a coherent reading of the evidence.

Croatia vs England prediction from BetMines: Over 2.5 goals with 60% probability.