Croatia host Spain at Stadion Poljud in Split on October 6 for a UEFA Nations League meeting shaped by sharply contrasting results. Croatia are looking for a response after losing 4-1 to Spain on September 29 and 7-0 to England on October 3. Spain followed their win over Croatia with a 3-1 victory against the Czech Republic and arrive with three wins from three Nations League matches. The previous meeting produced five goals, and the scoring patterns behind both teams make goals a central question in this Croatia vs Spain preview.

Croatia's Recent Form and Key Stats

Croatia opened their Nations League campaign with a 2-1 win over the Czech Republic, but the following two matches brought heavy defeats. They conceded four against Spain before England scored seven without reply. Croatia were already 4-0 down at half-time against England, ending that match with 36% possession, 1.39 expected goals and one big chance created. For a side seeking a quick recovery, both the scale of that defeat and the short time since it took place add weight to this home fixture.

Across their last five matches, Croatia have recorded two wins and three defeats, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 3.0 conceded. Their Nations League record stands at one win and two losses, with averages of 1.0 goal scored and 4.0 conceded per game. The immediate concern is clear: Spain and England scored a combined 11 goals against Croatia in their last two matches, while Croatia managed one in return.

Home results offer a more encouraging counterpoint. Croatia have lost only two of their last 14 home matches across all competitions, and their last 11 home games have each featured over 1.5 total goals. There has also been at least one second-half goal in each of their last 12 matches. Those figures do not erase the recent defeats, but they show why Croatia's wider home record should be considered alongside their difficult week.

Slaven Bilić made three half-time changes against England, introducing Igor Matanovic, Mario Pasalic and Nikola Vlasic. Luka Modric was withdrawn before the hour mark in that game. Croatia reported no new injury concerns from the defeat, although five players are at risk of a yellow-card suspension.

Spain's Recent Form and Key Stats

Spain have made a strong start to this Nations League campaign, winning all three matches while averaging 3.3 goals scored per game. Their results include the 4-1 victory over Croatia and Saturday's 3-1 win against the Czech Republic. In that latest match, Spain had 69% possession, produced 2.10 expected goals and created five big chances. They also registered 18 shots, including 10 on target.

The longer runs reinforce their current form. Spain are unbeaten in their last 40 matches, their last 16 Nations League matches and their last 16 away matches. They have won eight consecutive away games. In the Nations League specifically, they have scored at least once in each of their last 12 fixtures and at least twice in each of their last 10. They have also scored in their last 12 away matches.

Goals have been a recurring feature of Spain's Nations League games, not just their own scoreline. Their last 10 matches in the competition have all contained over 2.5 total goals, while the last eight have each gone over 3.5. All of their last 10 Nations League matches have had a first-half goal, and each of their last 12 has included a second-half goal. Spain have won at half-time in eight of their last 10 games in the competition.

Lamine Yamal scored in the sixth minute against the Czech Republic and has four goals and one assist in three Nations League matches this season. Ferran Torres, Nico Williams and Alex Grimaldo withdrew from the squad ahead of that match through injury, while Pau Curbasi was rested; all four are listed as doubts for the Croatia fixture.

Croatia vs Spain Match Analysis

The teams meet again only a week after Spain's 4-1 win. Croatia have not beaten Spain in their last four meetings, and the supplied five-match head-to-head summary gives Croatia one win, two draws and two defeats, with averages of 1.4 goals scored and 2.4 conceded. The latest result is particularly relevant because it forms part of Croatia's two-match run of 11 goals conceded.

Spain's unbeaten streak and eight straight away wins point to a demanding test for the hosts, though Croatia's record of just two home defeats in 14 matches provides some balance. The clearest shared theme is scoring: Croatia's recent defensive figures sit alongside Spain's run of 10 consecutive Nations League games with at least three total goals. The previous meeting reached five, while Croatia's last 11 home matches have all produced at least two.

An early goal would fit Spain's recent Nations League pattern, but Croatia's need for a response and their stronger home record leave room for a more competitive match than their last two results suggest. Rather than relying solely on the contrast in form, the goal totals across both teams' supplied records provide the strongest basis for assessing this fixture.

Croatia vs Spain prediction from BetMines: Over 2.5 goals with 60% probability.