Tools
Cruzeiro
2 - 1
FT
Chapecoense
Prediction published on May 23, 2026 4:02 AM by Dario in Brazil - Serie A | Modified on May 23, 2026 4:02 AM
The upcoming clash between Cruzeiro and Chapecoense promises to be a decisive moment in the 2026 Serie A season. Scheduled for Sunday, May 24, 2026, this encounter brings together two teams living very different realities. The home side, Cruzeiro, sit in 13th place with 20 points, while Chapecoense occupy the bottom of the table in 20th position. Despite Cruzeiro’s inconsistent campaign, their recent improvement and home advantage make them the favorites heading into this match.
Cruzeiro approach this fixture with a sense of growing confidence. The team has shown signs of recovery in recent weeks, remaining unbeaten in their last five matches across all competitions, with two wins and three draws. Their most recent result, a 1-1 draw against Boca Juniors on May 20, 2026, demonstrated resilience and tactical discipline, especially considering the quality of the opposition. In Serie A, Cruzeiro’s record stands at five wins, five draws, and six defeats, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game.
At home, Cruzeiro have been particularly solid, often controlling possession and dictating the tempo. Their defensive organization has improved, conceding an average of just 0.6 goals per match over their last five outings. The team’s attacking unit, while not prolific, has been efficient enough to secure important points. With several key players unavailable, including Keny Arroyo, Cássio, Kauã Prates, and Matheus Henrique, the squad depth will be tested. However, the likely presence of names such as Otávio, Fabrício Bruno, Lucas Romero, Matheus Pereira, and Kaio Jorge ensures that Cruzeiro maintain a competitive edge.
Chapecoense arrive at this match in a difficult situation, sitting at the bottom of the Serie A standings. Despite their struggles, the team recently earned a morale-boosting 0-2 away victory against Novorizontino on May 20, 2026. That result ended a poor run and provided a glimpse of their potential when playing with determination. Over their last five matches, Chapecoense have recorded three wins, one draw, and one defeat, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game. However, their overall season record remains concerning: one win, six draws, and eight losses, with an average of 1.1 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per match.
The visitors have struggled to impose themselves in the first halves of matches, having failed to lead at half time in their last 15 Serie A games. Their away performances tend to be cautious, with under 1.5 goals scored before the break in each of their last 11 away fixtures. On the positive side, Chapecoense have shown consistency in the second half, with over 0.5 goals scored in that period in their last 13 away matches. The team’s lineup may be affected by the absence of Camilo, Rafael Thyere, Robert, and Victor Caetano, while Kauan remains a doubt. Expected starters include Rafael Santos, Bruno Leonardo, Jean Carlos, and Bolasie, who will be tasked with leading the attack.
This fixture presents a clear contrast in form and ambition. Cruzeiro are gradually regaining their rhythm and will look to dominate from the start, especially in front of their home supporters. Their balanced approach, combining solid defense with quick transitions, could prove decisive against a Chapecoense side that often struggles to maintain concentration in the early stages of matches. The home team’s midfield control and pressing intensity are likely to create several scoring opportunities.
Chapecoense, on the other hand, will probably adopt a more conservative strategy, focusing on defensive organization and counterattacks. Their recent improvement in attack suggests they can threaten on the break, but their defensive fragility remains a major concern. The visitors’ inability to hold leads or keep clean sheets consistently could once again be their downfall against a more structured opponent.
Historically, the head-to-head record slightly favors Cruzeiro, with two wins, two draws, and one defeat in their last five meetings. The most recent encounter ended 1-1 in August 2022, showing that Chapecoense can be competitive, but the current circumstances point toward a different outcome this time.
Based on the statistical trends and current form, the BetMines prediction leans toward a Cruzeiro win (1) with a probability of 61%. The draw (X) stands at 24%, while an away win (2) for Chapecoense is estimated at 15%. Given Cruzeiro’s home advantage and Chapecoense’s poor defensive record, a home victory appears the most likely outcome.
Cruzeiro vs Chapecoense prediction from BetMines: Home Win (1) with 61% probability.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Cruzeiro
Chapecoense
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
1
9
0
10
1.5
2
8
1
9
2.5
6
4
4
6
3.5
9
1
7
3
4.5
10
0
9
1