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Crvena Zvezda
6:00 PM
August 11, 2026
Hapoel Be'er Sheva
Prediction published on Aug 9, 2026 7:05 PM by Dario in Europe - Champions League | Modified on Aug 9, 2026 7:05 PM
Crvena Zvezda welcome Hapoel Be'er Sheva to Belgrade on 11 August 2026 for the second leg of their Champions League third qualifying-round tie. Hapoel hold a narrow advantage after winning the opening match 1-0 on 4 August, meaning the hosts need to overturn a one-goal deficit to progress. A one-goal Crvena Zvezda victory after 90 minutes would only bring the aggregate score level and force extra time. The first leg was notable because Hapoel protected their lead despite finishing with ten men, while Crvena Zvezda failed to score for the only time in their campaign so far. The return fixture therefore presents a clear contrast: the home side possess strong attacking numbers and an imposing home scoring sequence, but the visitors arrive with a lead and a long run of finding the net.
Crvena Zvezda approach this decisive Champions League match after beating Novi Pazar 2-0 on 8 August. Their last five games have produced four victories and one defeat, with averages of 2.8 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded per match. That sequence shows how effectively they have responded across most of their recent fixtures, although the single setback was particularly significant because it came against Hapoel in the first leg.
Their Champions League record this season stands at two wins and one defeat. Across those three games, Crvena Zvezda have averaged 3.0 goals scored and 0.3 conceded. Before facing Hapoel, the Red-Whites scored nine goals over two legs against Larne, following a 4-0 victory with a 5-0 success. They have scored 19 times across five of their six matches during the campaign, and the 1-0 first-leg loss remains their only blank.
The home statistics provide further encouragement for a team required to attack the aggregate deficit. Crvena Zvezda have scored at least once in each of their last 17 home Champions League matches, while all 17 of those fixtures contained more than 1.5 total goals. There has also been a first-half goal in each of that sequence and a second-half goal in the latest 14. Across all competitions, they have scored in their last 12 home games, every one of which featured at least two total goals.
Their early control at home has been another recurring feature. Crvena Zvezda have led at half time in their last four home fixtures and in 23 of their previous 32 matches overall. Moreover, 27 of their last 29 games have produced a first-half goal, as have 30 of their latest 33 Champions League fixtures. Those trends suggest the hosts have regularly been involved in games that become active before the interval rather than remaining scoreless deep into proceedings.
Hapoel Be'er Sheva travel with the advantage secured by their 1-0 home victory over Crvena Zvezda. That result gave them a valuable lead to defend and also demonstrated their ability to protect a narrow margin after being reduced to ten men. Their recent overall record is less consistent than that of the hosts, however: Hapoel have recorded two wins and three defeats in their last five matches, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded.
In this season's Champions League, Hapoel have collected two victories and one defeat, matching Crvena Zvezda's win-draw-loss record. Their tournament averages are 1.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per game. The first-leg clean sheet places them in a strong position, but maintaining another shutout will require them to resist a home side that has scored consistently in this competition.
Hapoel also carry a notable attacking sequence into the return match. They have found the net in each of their last 15 games in all competitions, while the wider data shows that they have scored at least once in 24 of their last 25 matches. Both teams scored in eight of their ten fixtures before this tie began, underlining how frequently their own goal threat has been accompanied by opportunities for the opposition.
The visitors' away matches have consistently featured action after the interval. More than 0.5 second-half goals have been recorded in each of their last 18 away fixtures, as well as in 23 of their previous 25 games overall. Hapoel have also avoided trailing at half time in 22 of their last 23 matches. Protecting the tie during the opening period could therefore be important, particularly because their opponents have recently built a strong record of leading at the break.
The central question is whether Crvena Zvezda can turn their excellent home scoring record into the goals needed to reverse the first-leg result. They cannot afford to treat the contest as a routine home fixture: a draw would eliminate them, while a one-goal victory would merely level the aggregate score. Their nine goals against Larne and their average of three goals per Champions League match illustrate the attacking output available to them, but Hapoel have already shown that this threat can be contained.
At the same time, the visitors have reasons to believe they can contribute offensively rather than relying entirely on their advantage. Hapoel Be'er Sheva have scored in 15 consecutive games, and Crvena Zvezda's need to push for a goal could make the match increasingly open. The hosts have conceded only 0.4 goals per game across their last five and 0.3 per Champions League fixture this season, so Hapoel's scoring streak will be tested by strong defensive numbers.
The first half could establish the direction of the tie. Crvena Zvezda have led at the interval in four successive home games, but Hapoel have not been behind at half time in 22 of their last 23 matches. One of those sequences must come under pressure as the hosts seek an early breakthrough and the visitors attempt to preserve their aggregate lead. With both teams also associated with long second-half goal runs, the contest may remain active even if Hapoel successfully frustrate the home side during the opening stages.
Overall, this Champions League qualifier brings together a powerful home scoring trend and an away side carrying both a narrow advantage and sustained attacking form. Crvena Zvezda's objective is clear, while Hapoel can progress by managing the game without surrendering their first-leg lead. The available statistics point to a return leg shaped by the hosts' urgency, the visitors' ability to score regularly and the importance of the opening goal in deciding how the remainder of the tie develops.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Crvena Zvezda
Hapoel Be'er Sheva
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
0
10
0
10
1.5
1
9
1
9
2.5
3
7
2
8
3.5
4
6
4
6
4.5
8
2
7
3