CSKA 1948 Sofia host Spartak Trnava at National Stadium Vasil Levski on Tuesday, July 28, 2026, for the second leg of their UEFA Conference League second qualifying-round tie. The contest remains completely open after a 0-0 draw on July 22. That first leg generated only 1.37 combined expected goals, with Spartak Trnava recording 0.74 xG and CSKA 1948 Sofia producing 0.63 xG. Possession was evenly shared and both teams registered two shots on target, underlining how little separated them. With a place in the third qualifying round at stake, the return fixture brings greater pressure but begins without either side holding an aggregate advantage.

CSKA 1948 Sofia Recent Form and Key Statistics

CSKA 1948 Sofia approach the second leg in encouraging form, having recorded three wins and two draws across their last five matches. They have scored an average of 1.2 goals per game during that sequence while conceding only 0.6, giving them a solid platform ahead of this decisive European fixture. Their most recent result was a 2-1 victory against Botev Vratsa on July 25, allowing them to return to winning ways between the two continental meetings.
The home side’s defensive record is particularly significant. CSKA 1948 Sofia have conceded only two goals across their last five competitive home matches, and the goal allowed against Botev Vratsa was just the second during that run. Their wider results also point towards controlled contests, as six of their previous eight competitive games ended with fewer than 2.5 goals. Although they enter the return leg as slight favourites, their first-leg total of 0.63 xG shows that creating clear chances was not straightforward in Trnava.
First-half patterns provide another important part of the match preview. CSKA 1948 Sofia have been level at the interval in seven of their last eight home fixtures, suggesting that their games have often taken time to open up. Three of their previous ten home matches finished with under 0.5 total goals, while the same outcome occurred in three of their last 15 matches overall. Their Europa Conference League record this season stands at one draw from one game, with no goals scored or conceded following the opening leg.

Spartak Trnava Recent Form and Key Statistics

Spartak Trnava were unable to turn home advantage into a first-leg lead, but the goalless result means they travel to Sofia with qualification still within reach. Their performance was balanced with that of CSKA 1948 Sofia in terms of possession and shots on target, although an xG figure of 0.74 reflected the limited quality of the opportunities created. Antonio Muñoz’s side will now need to find a way through a home defence that has recently been difficult to break down.
The visitors drew 1-1 with Skalica on July 25. Across their last five matches, they have collected one win, three draws and one defeat, scoring an average of 1.4 goals and conceding 1.6 per fixture. Those overall averages are higher than the numbers seen in the first leg, yet their European trends indicate that patience may again be required. In each of Spartak Trnava’s last ten away matches in the Europa Conference League, the first half contained fewer than 1.5 total goals.
There is also a notable contrast between their first-half and second-half records. While their away European fixtures have consistently started with limited scoring, over 0.5 second-half goals have been recorded in 18 of their last 20 Europa Conference League matches. At the same time, two of their previous ten games in the competition ended with under 0.5 total goals. Like their hosts, Spartak Trnava have one draw, no victories and no defeats in this season’s tournament, with averages of zero goals scored and zero conceded after the stalemate in Trnava.

CSKA 1948 Sofia vs Spartak Trnava Match Analysis

The evidence from the opening encounter points towards another closely balanced match. Neither side managed to score, the teams finished level for possession and shots on target, and their combined expected-goals total stayed at just 1.37. The head-to-head summary therefore stands at one draw from one meeting, with both the scoring and conceding averages at zero. Those figures leave no existing advantage for either club beyond CSKA 1948 Sofia playing the return fixture at home.
CSKA 1948 Sofia can draw confidence from an unbeaten five-match sequence and a home defensive run featuring only two goals conceded in five competitive fixtures. However, their modest chance creation in the first leg means territorial advantage alone may not be enough to make the contest comfortable. Their tendency to reach half time level at home could again produce a cautious opening, particularly when one goal would substantially change the shape of the tie.
Spartak Trnava, meanwhile, have drawn three of their last five matches and arrive after another draw against Skalica. Their sequence of ten European away games with under 1.5 first-half goals supports the possibility of a measured start, while their strong trend for at least one second-half goal in Europa Conference League matches suggests the contest may become more active after the break. The visitors must balance the need to improve on their first-leg attacking output with the danger of giving space to opponents who have avoided defeat in each of their latest five games.
The listed win probabilities underline the narrow margins: CSKA 1948 Sofia are rated at 42%, the draw at 26%, and Spartak Trnava at 32%. The goal-related figures are similarly close, with both teams to score rated at 51% for Yes and 49% for No, while under 2.5 goals holds a 51% to 49% edge over the alternative. Rather than showing a dominant statistical direction, these numbers reinforce the central theme of the tie: a finely poised second leg in which efficiency and defensive concentration could prove decisive.