Cyprus host Latvia in the UEFA Nations League on October 5, 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 16:00 local time at Neo GSP in Levkosía. Cyprus arrive after a 2-0 victory over Armenia, while Latvia are looking to recover from a 2-1 defeat against Montenegro. The teams drew 0-0 in their most recent meeting on September 28, and their two recorded head-to-head matches have both finished level. Cyprus have the stronger recent results, but those draws give Latvia reason to believe they can make this another close contest.

Cyprus Recent Form and Key Stats

Cyprus have recorded two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last five matches. Across that spell, they have averaged 1.2 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game. Their latest result, the 2-0 win over Armenia on October 2, offers a timely boost ahead of Latvia’s visit.

In this UEFA Nations League campaign, Cyprus have one win, one draw and one loss, averaging 1.0 goal scored and 0.7 conceded. They are listed second in the competition ranking supplied for this fixture, ahead of fourth-placed Latvia. The figures suggest Cyprus have generally kept matches manageable, even if their scoring rate in the competition has been modest.

There are mixed signals in their home statistics. Cyprus’s last 12 home matches have each featured over 1.5 total goals, but they have trailed at half-time in eight of their last 11 home games. Four of their last 20 UEFA Nations League matches have finished without a goal. The Armenia victory strengthens the case for the hosts, although the home half-time record is a reminder that a quick start cannot be taken for granted.

Latvia Recent Form and Key Stats

Latvia have gone five matches without a win, drawing twice and losing three times. They have averaged just 0.4 goals scored per game in that run, compared with 1.2 conceded. Their 2-1 loss to Montenegro on October 2 was their second defeat in three UEFA Nations League matches this campaign.

Latvia’s campaign record stands at one draw and two losses, with averages of 0.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. Scoring has been their clearest difficulty: across their last five matches, they have managed two goals. Yet they held Cyprus to a 0-0 draw in the teams’ latest meeting, showing that their recent form does not rule out another competitive result in this fixture.

The goals trends in Latvia’s Nations League matches also point toward controlled scorelines. Their last 10 matches in the competition have all stayed under 3.5 total goals, while each of those games has had fewer than 1.5 first-half goals. Latvia have not won at half-time in 20 of their last 21 matches and have trailed at the interval in eight of their last 13 away games. Those numbers underline the challenge facing the visitors, particularly if Cyprus build on their result against Armenia.

Cyprus vs Latvia Match Analysis

The recent head-to-head record is the main counterweight to Cyprus’s stronger form. The teams drew 0-0 on September 28, following an earlier 1-1 draw. Across those two meetings, each side has averaged 0.5 goals scored per match. Neither has yet found a way to turn this matchup into a victory, despite Cyprus entering the rematch with the better results over their last five games.

Cyprus have won two of those five matches and conceded an average of only 0.6 goals, while Latvia have no wins in the same span and have scored at an average of 0.4. The supplied win probabilities also favor the hosts: 57% for Cyprus, 23% for a draw and 20% for Latvia. That advantage is clear, but the two previous draws make the possibility of another level finish difficult to dismiss.

For this Cyprus vs Latvia preview, the central question is whether Cyprus can turn their recent improvement into a first head-to-head win. Latvia’s scoring record gives the hosts an opportunity, while Cyprus’s tendency to trail at half-time in home matches argues against assuming they will control the game from the outset. Taken together, the form and head-to-head figures make Cyprus the stronger side on paper, with a draw still a credible outcome.

Cyprus vs Latvia prediction from BetMines: Cyprus or Draw (1X) with 80% probability.