The second leg of the Conference League first qualifying round brings an intriguing clash between Dečić and FK Liepāja. The Montenegrin side return home to Tuzi needing to overturn a one-goal deficit after losing 1-0 in Latvia. Despite that setback, the tie remains wide open, and with the home crowd behind them, Dečić will be confident of forcing extra time or even securing outright qualification. Liepāja, meanwhile, travel without their suspended captain after a hard-fought first-leg win that came despite playing with ten men for over an hour.

Dečić’s Recent Form and Key Stats

The hosts approach this decisive encounter with a mixed but encouraging record. In their last five matches, Dečić have recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 defeats, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game. Their defensive consistency has been notable, with Under 3.5 total goals recorded in each of their last ten fixtures. This trend highlights a disciplined back line capable of keeping matches tight, especially in front of their supporters.

At home, Dečić have shown resilience, avoiding defeat at half time in 18 of their last 20 home matches. They also tend to start cautiously, with Under 1.5 goals at half time in each of their last ten outings. Even though they lost the first leg 1-0, the Montenegrin side’s record suggests they rarely crumble early and often grow into games as they progress. Their last campaign in this competition saw them clear the same round, and that experience could prove vital as they seek to repeat the feat.

• Dečić’s last 10 matches: Under 3.5 goals in all.


• Dečić have not lost at half time in 19 of their last 21 matches.


• Average goals scored: 1.6; Average conceded: 0.8.


• Europa Conference League 2026 record: 0 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss.

Liepāja’s Recent Form and Key Stats

FK Liepāja arrive in Montenegro with a narrow advantage but face a challenging task without their suspended captain. Their first-leg victory was built on determination rather than dominance, as they played most of the match with ten men yet still managed to score through Ede Oloko. However, their away form raises concerns: recent trips have ended in a 4-0 defeat at Riga FC, a 1-0 loss at Grobiņa, and a 3-1 setback at Daugavpils. Such results underline their vulnerability on the road.

In their last five matches, Liepāja have registered 2 wins and 3 defeats, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. They tend to be more productive after the break, with Over 0.5 goals in the second half in 19 of their last 20 away matches. Yet, they often struggle to start well, having lost at half time in 8 of their last 11 away fixtures. This pattern could again play into Dečić’s hands if the hosts manage to impose early pressure.

• Liepāja’s last 5 matches: 2 wins, 3 defeats.


• Average goals scored: 1.2; Average conceded: 1.2.


• Over 0.5 goals in the second half in 20 of their last 22 matches.


• Lost at half time in 8 of their last 11 away games.

Dečić vs Liepāja Tactical Overview and Match Analysis

The first leg in Latvia was a tense and physical affair, with Liepāja’s defensive organization proving decisive despite their numerical disadvantage. Now, the dynamics shift dramatically. Dečić will enjoy home advantage and are expected to take the initiative, while Liepāja must adapt to playing without their suspended leader in defense. The Montenegrin champions will likely rely on their compact structure and measured buildup, aiming to exploit any gaps left by the visitors’ reshuffled back line.

Statistically, both teams show a tendency toward low-scoring encounters. Dečić’s matches consistently stay under 3.5 goals, while Liepāja’s away games often feature late scoring bursts rather than early fireworks. Given these trends, the first half could be cagey, with the second period opening up as fatigue and urgency set in. A single goal could again decide the outcome, but the hosts’ stability and home momentum make them slight favorites to at least avoid defeat.

Historically, this is only the second meeting between the two clubs, with Liepāja winning the first leg 1-0. Dečić will need a one-goal victory to force extra time, and their recent home record suggests they have the discipline and belief to achieve that. The visitors’ inconsistent away form and defensive absences further tilt the balance toward the Montenegrin side.

BetMines Prediction

According to the latest probabilities, the match remains finely balanced: Dečić win 38%, Draw 26%, and Liepāja win 37%. The data also points to a moderate scoring outlook, with Over 2.5 goals at 52% and Both Teams To Score – Yes at 54%. Considering the context of the tie and the hosts’ strong home resilience, the BetMines prediction favors a Dečić win or draw as the most likely outcome.

Dečić vs Liepāja prediction by BetMines:
Dečić win or draw (1X) with a balanced probability based on current form and statistical trends.