Denmark host Portugal at Parken in Copenhagen on October 1 for a UEFA Nations League Group A4 meeting between teams that both won on Sunday. Denmark moved into third place with a 2-0 home victory over Wales, while Portugal stayed top after winning 2-1 away to Norway. The visitors have won their first two group matches, but Denmark’s unbeaten home run gives the hosts reason to believe they can challenge them. Their recent meetings also offer an intriguing contrast: Denmark won the March 2025 encounter in Copenhagen, yet Portugal have won four of the last five matches between the sides.

Denmark’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Denmark responded to a 3-2 defeat against Norway in their Nations League opener by beating Wales 2-0 on September 27. That leaves them with one win and one loss in Group A4, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match. Across their last five fixtures, they have recorded two wins, two draws and one defeat, with averages of 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded.

The result against Wales was backed by substantial territorial pressure. Denmark had 62% possession and made 47 touches in the opposition box, although they created just one big chance and finished with 1.39 expected goals. Those figures point to a side capable of sustaining attacks at home, even if its volume of possession did not produce a large number of clear openings on Sunday.

Parken has been a productive setting for Denmark: they are unbeaten in their last nine home matches across all competitions, winning seven and drawing two. They have scored at least twice in seven of those games. There is a more restrained Nations League trend alongside that record, however, with fewer than 3.5 total goals in each of their last 11 home matches in the competition. Denmark have also avoided trailing at half-time in 19 of their last 20 home fixtures.

Mikkel Damsgaard supplied two key passes against Wales and completed all 26 of his passes into the final third. Mohamed Daramy made an impact after coming off the bench, registering five shots, 13 touches in the opposition box and 0.5 expected goals. Denmark will be without Patrick Dorgu, who suffered a muscle injury in the first half-hour on Sunday and returned to Manchester United for rehabilitation.

Portugal’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Portugal began their Nations League title defence with a 1-0 win over Wales before overcoming Norway 2-1 in Oslo. Their two wins from two leave them first in Group A4, with competition averages of 1.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded. Over their most recent five matches, Portugal have three wins, one draw and one defeat, averaging 1.0 goal scored and 0.6 conceded.

The Norway victory required resilience. Portugal won despite having 32% possession and being outperformed on expected goals, 2.52 to 1.04. Norway also created six big chances to Portugal’s three. Securing the points under those circumstances strengthens the visitors’ recent results, while showing that they may have to withstand periods of pressure against Denmark.

Portugal are unbeaten in their last three away games and have lost only one of their last seven on the road, a sequence that includes five wins and a draw. They scored at least twice in each of those five away victories. They have also avoided trailing at half-time in 21 of their last 23 matches. Those records present a substantial test for Denmark’s home run, even though the visitors’ display against Norway was not dominant by the underlying numbers.

Cristiano Ronaldo remained on the bench against Norway as Joao Felix and Goncalo Ramos both scored. Felix had already struck the winner against Wales and has nine goal contributions in his last 10 appearances for club and country. Bruno Fernandes was an unused substitute against Norway because of an ongoing injury. He was still listed as a doubt, although he took part in full team training on Tuesday.

Denmark vs Portugal Match Analysis

The form lines make this a difficult contest to separate. Denmark have taken points from each of their last nine home matches and scored two or more goals in seven of them. Portugal, meanwhile, have won both Group A4 games and five of their last seven away fixtures. The supplied win probabilities are similarly close, at 38% for Denmark and 37% for Portugal, with a draw at 24%.

Head-to-head results favor the visitors overall: from Denmark’s perspective, the last five meetings have brought one win and four defeats, with averages of 1.0 goal scored and 1.6 conceded. The most recent meeting finished 3-2 on March 23, 2025, demonstrating how open this fixture can become. Denmark’s home victory over Portugal in March 2025 also means the hosts have a recent example of overcoming this opponent in Copenhagen.

There are reasons for caution about expecting a particularly high score, notably Denmark’s run of 11 Nations League home games with fewer than four total goals. Still, both teams have already scored in each of their opening two group matches, and Denmark’s attacking production at Parken meets a Portugal side that has repeatedly found goals in away victories. Portugal’s ability to win in Norway despite conceding chances adds another factor to the balance. With neither team’s recent record pointing to a clear favorite, chances at both ends are a plausible feature of this Group A4 match.

Denmark vs Portugal prediction from BetMines: Both Teams To Score (Yes) with 57% probability.