The Basque derby at Mendizorroza brings together two sides in contrasting but equally delicate situations. Deportivo Alavés are fighting to stay above the relegation line, holding a narrow two-point cushion, while Athletic Club find themselves mid-table, far from the European spots after disappointing campaigns in both continental and domestic cups. The atmosphere promises to be tense, with both teams desperate for a result that could redefine their season’s trajectory.

Deportivo Alavés: Searching for Stability

Deportivo Alavés approach this clash with mixed results in recent weeks. Their last five league matches have produced two wins, two draws, and one defeat, with an average of 2.4 goals scored and 2.2 conceded per game. The most recent victory, a 2-1 success against Mallorca, provided a much-needed boost in confidence. Over the course of the season, they have recorded 9 wins, 9 draws, and 15 losses, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match in La Liga.

One of the most striking trends for the home side is their consistency in producing open games. Over 1.5 total goals have been scored in each of their last 14 league fixtures, and at least one goal has been conceded in their last 18. Furthermore, every one of their last 11 home matches has seen at least one goal in the second half, showing that action often intensifies after the break. Despite their defensive fragility, Alavés have shown resilience at home, avoiding defeat at half time in 18 of their last 20 matches at Mendizorroza.

In terms of personnel, the hosts will be without Lucas Boyé, sidelined for three weeks, and the suspended Garcés. Protesoni remains doubtful. The expected lineup includes Sivera in goal, with Ángel Pérez, Tenaglia, Parada, and Jonny Castro forming the back line. In midfield, Blanco, Ibáñez, and Denis Suárez will look to control possession, while Rebbach, Diabaté, and Toni Martínez are expected to lead the attack.

Athletic Club: Inconsistent but Dangerous

Athletic Club arrive in Vitoria after a 3-2 defeat against Atlético Madrid, a result that underlined both their attacking potential and defensive vulnerabilities. Their last five matches have yielded two wins and three losses, with an average of 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. Over the season, they have registered 12 wins, 5 draws, and 16 defeats, averaging 1.1 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match.

Defensively, the visitors have struggled to keep clean sheets, conceding at least one goal in 22 of their last 23 matches. Away from home, the trend is similar: they have allowed goals in each of their last 13 away fixtures, with over 1.5 total goals recorded in the last 12. The second half has been particularly eventful, with at least one goal scored after the break in 19 of their last 21 away games in La Liga.

For this encounter, Beñat Prados remains unavailable due to injury, but Jauregizar returns after serving a suspension. The likely starting eleven features Unai Simón in goal, Gorosabel, Vivian, Laporte, and Yuri Berchiche in defense, with De Galarreta, Jauregizar, Berenguer, Iñaki Williams, Nico Williams, and Guruzeta forming the midfield and attack.

Match Analysis and Tactical Overview

This Basque derby promises intensity and goals. Both sides have shown a clear tendency toward high-scoring matches: six of Alavés’ last seven league games and four of Athletic’s last six have ended with more than two goals. The hosts’ defensive issues, combined with the visitors’ need to attack to keep their European hopes alive, suggest an open contest with plenty of chances at both ends.

Historically, Athletic Club have had the upper hand in recent meetings, winning three of the last five encounters, including a 1-0 victory earlier this season. However, Deportivo Alavés’ home form and fighting spirit could make this edition of the derby much more balanced. The key battle will likely unfold in midfield, where Alavés’ creativity will meet Athletic’s pressing intensity. Given both teams’ defensive records, it would be surprising if this match ended goalless.

• Deportivo Alavés have seen over 1.5 goals in each of their last 14 league matches.


• Athletic Club have conceded in 22 of their last 23 games.


• Both teams have scored in over half of their recent fixtures.


• Over 0.5 goals in the second half have been recorded in 21 of the last 23 Athletic matches.

All these indicators point toward another lively encounter in Vitoria, where both sides are expected to find the net and maintain their attacking momentum.

Probable Lineups Deportivo Alavés vs Athletic Club

DEPORTIVO ALAVÉS (4-3-3): Sivera; Ángel Pérez, Tenaglia, Parada, Jonny Castro; Blanco, Ibáñez, Denis Suárez; Rebbach, Diabaté, Toni Martínez.
ATHLETIC CLUB (4-2-3-1): Unai Simón; Gorosabel, Vivian, Laporte, Yuri Berchiche; De Galarreta, Jauregizar; Berenguer, Iñaki Williams, Nico Williams; Guruzeta.

Deportivo Alavés vs Athletic Club Prediction

Considering the offensive patterns and defensive lapses of both teams, the most logical expectation is a match with several goals. The statistics strongly support the Over 2.5 goals scenario, as both sides have been involved in high-scoring games recently. With Athletic Club needing a win to stay in contention for European qualification and Deportivo Alavés eager to secure safety, an open and entertaining contest is anticipated.

Deportivo Alavés vs Athletic Club prediction from BetMines: Over 2.5 goals with 51% probability.