The Basque derby returns to Mendizorroza this Saturday as Deportivo Alavés host Real Sociedad in a clash full of regional pride and contrasting dynamics. The home side are struggling in La Liga, having lost their last three league matches, while their visitors from San Sebastián are looking to bounce back after a narrow defeat to Villarreal. Both teams, however, found some relief in midweek Copa del Rey victories, which could help restore confidence ahead of this crucial encounter.

Deportivo Alavés: Form and Key Stats

Deportivo Alavés approach this derby under pressure. The Vitoria-based side sit 14th in the table, just three points above the relegation zone, and their recent run of three consecutive league defeats has raised concerns. Still, their 3-0 win over Portugalete in the Copa del Rey earlier this week provided a much-needed morale boost. In La Liga, Alavés have recorded 4 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses, averaging 0.9 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per game.

At home, Mendizorroza has not been the fortress the fans hoped for. The team has failed to score in two of their last three home matches, and only two of their last ten home league games have featured fewer than 0.5 total goals. Despite their struggles, Alavés remain competitive, often keeping matches tight and low-scoring. Their last five fixtures across all competitions show 2 wins and 3 defeats, with an average of 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded.

Coach Eduardo Coudet has nearly a full squad available, with only Antonio Blanco suspended. His expected starting eleven should include Sivera in goal; Parada, Pacheco, Tenaglia, Jonny Otto in defense; Guvara and Ibáñez in midfield; Rebbach, Denis Suárez, Calebe supporting Lucas Boyé up front. The Argentine manager will rely on his team’s discipline and compactness to frustrate their more technically gifted opponents.

Real Sociedad: Form and Key Stats

Real Sociedad arrive in Vitoria after a mixed run of results. They currently occupy 10th place in La Liga with 4 wins, 4 draws, and 6 defeats, scoring 1.4 goals per game and conceding 1.5. Their last five matches show a positive trend overall — 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss — including a comfortable 2-0 Copa del Rey victory over Reddis on December 3. However, their defensive record remains a concern: the team has conceded at least one goal in 25 of their last 27 league matches and in each of their last 16 away games.

Manager Imanol Alguacil faces several absences. Star forward Mikel Oyarzabal remains sidelined, while Orri Óskarsson, Iñaki Rupérez, and Yangel Herrera are also unavailable. There are doubts over Igor Zubeldia and Luka Sucic. The likely lineup features Remiro in goal; Aihen Muñoz, Jon Martín, Elustondo, Aramburu at the back; Soler, Gorrotxategi, Brais Méndez in midfield; and an attacking trio of Barrenetxea, Guedes, and Kubo. Despite their attacking talent, the absence of Oyarzabal has reduced their cutting edge in front of goal.

Real Sociedad’s away form has been inconsistent, but they remain dangerous on the counterattack. Their matches tend to be open, yet they often struggle to keep clean sheets. Interestingly, their last five away games have all featured fewer than eight corners, suggesting a more controlled and cautious approach on the road.

Deportivo Alavés vs Real Sociedad: Tactical Overview and Prediction

Basque derbies are traditionally intense and fiercely contested, and this one should be no exception. Historically, these encounters have been tight affairs — the last time either side won by more than one goal was back in 2021. In their last three meetings at Mendizorroza, only four goals have been scored in total, underlining the defensive nature of this rivalry. The most recent head-to-head ended 1-0 in April 2025, and both matches last season finished with just a single goal difference.

Given Alavés’s scoring difficulties and Real Sociedad’s defensive vulnerabilities, the match could hinge on small details. The hosts will aim to stay compact and exploit set pieces, while the visitors will rely on their technical quality and quick transitions. However, both sides have shown a tendency toward low-scoring games, especially when facing each other. Alavés are the second-lowest scoring team in La Liga, and Real Sociedad’s attack has yet to fully adapt to life without Oyarzabal.

All signs point toward another close and tactical battle, where patience and defensive discipline may outweigh attacking flair. A single goal could once again decide the outcome, as both teams seek to return to winning ways and boost their league positions before the winter break.

Probable Lineups Deportivo Alavés vs Real Sociedad

DEPORTIVO ALAVÉS (4-2-3-1): Sivera; Parada, Pacheco, Tenaglia, Jonny Otto; Guvara, Ibáñez; Rebbach, Denis Suárez, Calebe; Lucas Boyé. Coach: E. Coudet

REAL SOCIEDAD (4-3-3): Remiro; Aihen Muñoz, Jon Martín, Elustondo, Aramburu; Soler, Gorrotxategi, Brais Méndez; Barrenetxea, Guedes, Kubo. Coach: I. Alguacil

Deportivo Alavés vs Real Sociedad prediction by BetMines:
The most likely outcome is an Away win (2) with a 41% probability. The Draw (X) follows at 28%, while a Deportivo Alavés win (1) stands at 31%.