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Prediction published on Sep 13, 2026 6:03 PM by Dario in Spain - La Liga | Modified on Sep 13, 2026 6:03 PM
Deportivo Alavés welcome Valencia to the Estadio de Mendizorroza for a La Liga fixture on September 15, 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 18:00 local time. The two teams enter the contest in sharply contrasting situations. Alavés are third after collecting 10 points from their opening five league matches, while Valencia sit 20th with only one point from the same number of games. The hosts recently saw their positive run interrupted by a 2-1 defeat against Racing Santander, but three victories, one draw and one loss still represent a strong start. Valencia, meanwhile, travel to Gasteiz after four defeats in five matches and with Corberán and his coaching staff having departed. With Alavés protecting a perfect home record this season and Valencia searching for their first league victory, this meeting offers both sides an immediate opportunity to respond to their latest setbacks.
Deportivo Alavés had taken 10 points from a possible 12 before losing 2-1 away to Racing Santander on September 12. That result ended their excellent sequence, although their overall numbers remain encouraging. Across the last five matches, Alavés have registered three wins, one draw and one defeat, scoring an average of 2.2 goals per game while conceding 1.0.
Their La Liga record is identical, with three victories, one draw and one loss. The attacking consistency behind that start is especially notable: Alavés have scored at least once in each of their last 17 league matches. Their current scoring average also suggests that the defeat at Racing Santander was a setback rather than evidence of a wider offensive problem. Boyé and Mariano have been highlighted for their productive form in front of goal.
Home performances provide another important source of confidence. Alavés have won all three matches played at the Estadio de Mendizorroza this season, while the venue has not witnessed a home defeat against Valencia since 2017. Their first-half record at home is also impressive. They have avoided being behind at the interval in 19 of their previous 21 home fixtures and have led at half-time in eight of the last 13. In La Liga specifically, they have been ahead at the break in six of their last 10 home games.
Valencia arrive under considerable pressure after taking only one point from the first 15 available. Their season record consists of no wins, one draw and four defeats, leaving them at the bottom of the La Liga standings. The latest setback was a 1-0 loss away to Sevilla on September 11, another game in which Valencia were unable to find the net.
The visitors have scored only once across their opening five league fixtures and have conceded 10 goals. Those totals translate to averages of 0.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per match. Their recent record therefore combines limited attacking output with significant defensive vulnerability. Across the same five-game period, Valencia have failed to record a victory and have suffered four losses.
The departure of Corberán and his coaching staff adds another major element to the build-up. Valencia need an immediate reaction, but the challenge is substantial against opponents who have scored regularly and won every home match so far. Improving their defensive resistance will be essential, particularly because Alavés have frequently established an advantage before half-time and continued to produce goals after the interval.
The statistical contrast makes this an intriguing La Liga match preview. Deportivo Alavés have averaged more than two goals per game, scored in 17 consecutive league fixtures and collected three home victories. Valencia, by comparison, have averaged two goals conceded while scoring just once all season. The hosts therefore possess the clearer recent attacking momentum, although their 2-1 defeat at Racing Santander shows that they are not coming into the contest without weaknesses.
The first half could be particularly important. Alavés have led at the interval in six of their last 10 La Liga matches and in six of their previous 10 league games at home. They have also avoided a half-time deficit in 19 of 21 home fixtures. Valencia’s defensive record increases the possibility that the home side will attempt to establish control early rather than allow the contest to remain level deep into the second half.
There are also reasons to expect more than a single goal across the full match. Alavés average 2.2 goals scored, Valencia concede 2.0 per game, and the latest head-to-head encounter ended 3-2 on March 8, 2026. The broader head-to-head summary gives Alavés two wins, two draws and one defeat, with averages of 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Although Valencia’s own scoring record has been poor, the home side’s attacking sequence and the visitors’ defensive numbers support the prospect of at least two goals being produced.
The result probabilities are comparatively close, with Alavés rated at 35%, the draw at 28% and Valencia at 37%. That narrow spread makes the match winner less straightforward than the league positions alone might suggest. The goals data offer a clearer direction: Alavés have been reliable scorers, while Valencia have repeatedly allowed opponents opportunities. Much will depend on whether the visitors can contain the hosts during the opening period and finally add to their total of one league goal.
Deportivo Alavés vs Valencia prediction from BetMines: Over 1.5 goals with 71% probability.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Deportivo Alavés
Valencia
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
0
10
1
9
1.5
2
8
3
7
2.5
6
4
4
6
3.5
9
1
8
2
4.5
9
1
9
1