The 28th round of La Liga EA Sports kicks off this Friday at Mendizorroza, where Deportivo Alavés will host Villarreal CF in a clash between two sides living very different realities. The home team are fighting to stay clear of the relegation zone, while the visitors are chasing a Champions League spot. Despite the contrasting objectives, both will be eager to secure three crucial points as the season enters its decisive stretch.

Deportivo Alavés – Recent Form and Key Stats

Deportivo Alavés come into this fixture after a narrow 3‑2 defeat against Valencia, a match that slipped away in the final minutes through a penalty. The result extended their winless streak to five league games, with two draws and three losses. During that run, they have averaged just 1.0 goal scored per game while conceding 2.0 on average. Over the course of the season, their record stands at seven wins, six draws and fourteen defeats, with 0.9 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match.

One of the few positives for the Basque side is their resilience at home: they have avoided losing at half‑time in 19 of their last 20 home fixtures. However, defensive issues persist, as they have conceded at least one goal in each of their last twelve league matches. Matches involving Alavés tend to open up after the break, with over 0.5 goals scored in the second half of their last fifteen games. Suspensions to Jon Pacheco and Ander Guevara will further test their depth, but players such as Blanco, Aleñá, Toni Martínez and Boyé are expected to shoulder responsibility in front of their fans.

Villarreal CF – Recent Form and Key Stats

Villarreal CF arrive in Vitoria on the back of a 2‑1 victory over Elche, a result that consolidated their position among the top four. The “Yellow Submarine” have collected three wins and two defeats in their last five league outings, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per match. Their overall season record is impressive: seventeen wins, three draws and seven losses, with an attacking average of 1.9 goals per game and a solid defensive line conceding 1.2.

Villarreal’s matches are rarely short of excitement. Over 1.5 goals have been scored in 19 of their last 20 league fixtures, and over 0.5 goals have been recorded in the second half in 25 of their last 26. Away from home, they have also seen goals after the break in 19 of their last 21 trips. The team’s consistency is reflected in their avoidance of draws – they have not shared the points in 25 of their last 27 matches. Even with injuries to Juan Foyth and Pau Cabanes, the visitors remain strong contenders, with players like Comesaña, Pape Gueye, Moleiro, Pépé and Mikautadze expected to feature prominently.

Head‑to‑Head and Tactical Overview

The recent history between these sides slightly favors Villarreal, who have won two of the last five meetings, drawing twice and losing once. The reverse fixture earlier this season ended 3‑1 in favor of the Yellow Submarine. On average, Alavés have scored 0.8 goals and conceded 1.6 per match in these encounters. While the hosts will rely on their fighting spirit and home support, Villarreal’s superior attacking rhythm and efficiency in front of goal could prove decisive once again.

Given the current form, the match is expected to be open and competitive, especially in the second half where both teams tend to produce goals. Alavés will likely focus on compact defending and quick transitions, while Villarreal should look to dominate possession and exploit spaces through their creative midfielders. The home crowd at Mendizorroza could play a role in keeping the game balanced for long stretches, but the visitors’ offensive depth might tilt the balance late on.

BetMines Prediction – Deportivo Alavés vs Villarreal CF

According to the latest probabilities, both sides have a 37% chance of winning, with a draw at 26%. However, the attacking trends of both teams suggest a lively contest. The BetMines prediction points towards Over 2.5 goals with a 53% probability, reflecting the high‑scoring nature of Villarreal’s recent matches and the defensive vulnerabilities of Alavés.

Deportivo Alavés vs Villarreal CF prediction by BetMines: Over 2.5 goals (53% probability).