The Copa del Rey round of 16 brings an intriguing clash between Deportivo La Coruña and Atlético Madrid at Riazor. The home side, eager to regain momentum after a dip in league form, faces one of the most consistent teams in Spanish football. For Atlético, this competition represents a crucial opportunity to secure silverware after recent setbacks in both the league and the Supercopa de España. The single-leg format adds extra tension, as one mistake could decide who advances to the quarterfinals.

Deportivo La Coruña’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Deportivo La Coruña approach this fixture with mixed emotions. In the Liga Hypermotion, their promotion push has slowed, with five consecutive league matches without a win. However, their resilience has been evident, managing back-to-back draws against strong opponents, including a 1-1 result away to Las Palmas on January 10, 2026. Despite the recent slump, their earlier performances in the Copa del Rey have been impressive, winning all three matches so far with an average of 2.7 goals scored and only 0.3 conceded per game.

At home, Deportivo have shown a consistent attacking rhythm, with over 0.5 goals scored in the second half of each of their last ten home fixtures. Their matches tend to open up after the break, a trend that could continue against a high-pressing opponent like Atlético. In their last five games across all competitions, Deportivo have recorded one win, two draws, and two defeats, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match.

Historically, the Galician side have struggled against Atlético, with no wins in their last five head-to-head meetings (four losses and one draw). Their last encounter dates back to April 2018, ending in a narrow 1-0 defeat. Nevertheless, the Copa del Rey often brings surprises, and Deportivo will look to channel the spirit that saw them eliminate Mallorca earlier in the competition.

Atlético Madrid’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Atlético Madrid arrive at Riazor after a 1-2 defeat to Real Madrid in the Supercopa de España semifinals, a result that ended their hopes of lifting that trophy. In La Liga, they currently sit fourth, trailing the leaders by a significant margin, which increases the importance of the Copa del Rey as a realistic target for success this season. Their Champions League campaign remains alive, but the domestic cup offers a more immediate chance to regain confidence.

In their last five matches, Atlético have achieved three wins, one draw, and one defeat, averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Their attacking consistency is remarkable, having scored in 27 of their last 29 matches in all competitions. Moreover, they have not trailed at half time in 21 of their last 22 fixtures, demonstrating their ability to control games from the outset. In the Copa del Rey, they have one win so far, a thrilling 3-2 result, showing both their offensive power and occasional defensive vulnerability.

Another notable trend is the frequency of goals in the second half of Atlético’s matches: over 0.5 goals have been scored after the break in 22 of their last 24 games. This pattern suggests that the match could come alive in the later stages, especially if Deportivo manage to hold firm early on. With key players like Griezmann and Julián Álvarez expected to feature, Atlético’s attacking depth could prove decisive.

Match Analysis: Deportivo La Coruña vs Atlético Madrid

This Copa del Rey tie promises a fascinating contrast of ambitions. Deportivo will rely on their home crowd and defensive organization to challenge a superior opponent, while Atlético will aim to impose their rhythm and efficiency in front of goal. The visitors’ recent record suggests they are well-equipped to handle knockout pressure, but Deportivo’s fighting spirit, especially at Riazor, cannot be underestimated.

Statistically, both teams tend to produce matches with goals in the second half, which could make this encounter particularly entertaining. Deportivo’s recent scoring average may not be high, but their cup performances show they can rise to the occasion. Atlético, on the other hand, combine attacking consistency with a solid first-half record, making them favorites to progress. The head-to-head history also favors the visitors, who have dominated this fixture in recent years.

Probable Lineups Deportivo La Coruña vs Atlético Madrid

DEPORTIVO LA CORUÑA (4-2-3-1): Ferllo; Alti, Comas, Noubi, Quagliata; Patiño, Mario Soriano; José Ángel, Mella, Yeremay; Eddahchouri.
ATLÉTICO MADRID (4-4-2): Musso; Ruggeri, Hancko, Pubill, Llorente; Koke, Gallagher, Giuliano, Baena; Griezmann, Julián Álvarez.

Deportivo La Coruña vs Atlético Madrid Prediction

Considering the current form and statistical trends, Atlético Madrid appear to have the upper hand. Their attacking consistency, combined with a strong record of avoiding first-half deficits, makes them clear favorites. Deportivo’s resilience could keep the match competitive, but the visitors’ quality should ultimately prevail.

Deportivo La Coruña vs Atlético Madrid prediction by BetMines:
Atlético Madrid win (2) with 42% probability.