Empoli and Arezzo meet in a Tuscan derby in Serie B on September 11, 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 17:00 at the Stadio Carlo Castellani. The hosts enter their second regional derby in succession after defeating Carrarese, while newly promoted Arezzo need an immediate reaction following a heavy loss against Hellas Verona. Empoli have collected two wins from their opening three league matches and occupy eighth place, six positions above their visitors. Arezzo have won once and lost twice, with their defensive record becoming the main concern ahead of this fixture. Although the hosts have not been completely consistent, their ability to score in every league game so far and Arezzo’s recent problems without the ball give Empoli an encouraging opportunity to build momentum at home.

Empoli Recent Form and Key Statistics

Empoli come into the derby after recording a 0-1 victory against Carrarese on September 5. That result followed an uneven start featuring another win against Cremonese and a defeat away to Mantova. Their Serie B record therefore stands at two victories and one loss, with averages of 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded per match.

Across their last five fixtures, Empoli have registered two wins, two draws and one defeat. The same balanced scoring figures appear over that sequence, with the team averaging one goal for and one against. Those numbers illustrate a side whose matches have generally been competitive rather than one-sided, but the victory over Carrarese provides a useful platform before another derby.

One positive feature of Empoli’s league campaign is that they have found the net in each of their first three matches. That consistency could become especially significant against an Arezzo defence that has recently conceded at a much higher rate. However, Empoli’s scoring average remains modest, so converting territorial or statistical superiority into clear opportunities will still be important.

Second-half action has also been a recurring feature in Empoli’s results. There has been at least one goal after the interval in 19 of their last 20 matches, while the same outcome has occurred in 19 of their last 21 Serie B fixtures. This suggests that patience could be required if the derby begins cautiously, with the latter stages offering a strong possibility of becoming more decisive.

Arezzo Recent Form and Key Statistics

Arezzo travel to Empoli in 14th place after one win and two defeats in their first three Serie B games. Their campaign began with victory at Avellino, but difficult meetings with Palermo and Hellas Verona exposed serious defensive weaknesses. Arezzo were beaten 2-3 by Palermo after remaining in contention until the closing moments, before suffering a 5-0 defeat against Hellas Verona on September 6.

Those two losses produced a total of eight goals conceded. Arezzo’s league averages now stand at 1.3 goals scored and 3.0 conceded per match, underlining the imbalance between their attacking contribution and defensive output. Their form over the last five matches is two wins and three defeats, accompanied by averages of 1.2 goals scored and 2.0 allowed.

The defeat against Hellas Verona was made more difficult by the dismissal of Illanes, whose resulting absence leaves Arezzo with another problem in defence for this derby. The contrast between their two latest performances is also notable: they stayed competitive against Palermo but were unable to recover once the match against Hellas Verona moved away from them. Avoiding another early loss of control will therefore be essential.

Despite Arezzo’s recent high-scoring results, their away and first-half trends point towards measured openings. At least one team has failed to score before half-time in each of Arezzo’s last 21 away matches. Their last 20 away fixtures have all contained fewer than 1.5 first-half goals, as have their last 10 matches overall. In addition, fewer than 7.5 corners were recorded in each of their previous four away games.

Empoli vs Arezzo Match Analysis

The central question in this Serie B derby is whether Empoli can exploit the defensive vulnerability shown by Arezzo in their latest two outings. The hosts have not produced prolific attacking averages, but they have scored in every league match and have just secured a clean-sheet victory against Carrarese. Facing a visiting side conceding three goals per league game presents a clear chance to improve that attacking return.

Arezzo, meanwhile, have demonstrated that they can contribute offensively, particularly in the five-goal contest against Palermo. Their recent numbers nevertheless show that goals scored have not been enough to compensate for the volume conceded. With Illanes unavailable after his red card, the visitors must find greater defensive stability while retaining enough ambition to threaten Empoli.

The available probabilities give Empoli the advantage: the home side have a 48% chance of victory, compared with 27% for the draw and 25% for an Arezzo win. Those figures do not make the hosts overwhelming favourites, but they do reflect the difference between Empoli’s two league victories and Arezzo’s consecutive defeats. The previous recorded head-to-head meeting ended 1-1 on September 6, 2018, providing a reminder that this fixture has not previously produced a winner in the supplied data.

There are competing signals regarding the goal total. Arezzo’s last two matches support the possibility of an open game, yet the current probabilities slightly favour under 2.5 goals at 55%, compared with 45% for over 2.5. The both-teams-to-score market is divided evenly at 50% for each outcome. The first-half trends associated with Arezzo suggest a controlled opening, while Empoli’s repeated second-half goal pattern indicates that the match could become more eventful after the break.

Overall, Empoli’s home advantage, stronger league record and greater defensive balance make them the more convincing side, although Arezzo’s attacking output means the visitors cannot be dismissed. The safest conclusion from the supplied form is that the hosts are well placed to avoid defeat, especially against opponents attempting to recover from conceding eight times across two matches.

Empoli vs Arezzo prediction from BetMines: Empoli or Draw (1X) with 75% probability.