The upcoming Serie B clash between Empoli and Mantova promises to be a tense battle for survival. Scheduled for Saturday afternoon, this fixture at the Castellani Stadium brings together two sides fighting to stay clear of the relegation zone. Empoli, once considered among the promotion contenders, have endured a disappointing campaign and find themselves just above the playout line. Mantova, meanwhile, have shown signs of recovery in recent weeks and will be eager to extend their positive momentum.

Empoli’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Empoli enter this match in a worrying run of form. Their last five games have produced no victories, with three draws and two defeats, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per match. The most recent setback came in a 3-2 loss against Catanzaro on March 8, a result that further highlighted their defensive fragility. Over the course of the season, Empoli’s record stands at 7 wins, 10 draws, and 12 losses, with an average of 1.2 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game.

At home, Empoli have struggled to impose themselves, winning only 20% of their fixtures — just three victories in fifteen attempts. This poor home record has contributed significantly to their current position in 13th place, only one point above the relegation playoff zone. Despite having a squad with higher technical quality than many of their rivals, the team’s inability to convert chances and maintain defensive stability has cost them dearly.

Historically, Empoli have enjoyed the upper hand in this fixture, remaining unbeaten in their last five encounters with Mantova (2 wins and 3 draws), scoring an average of 1.6 goals per game while conceding only 0.6. However, their current form suggests that maintaining this dominance will be far from straightforward.

Mantova’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Mantova arrive at this match with renewed confidence after two crucial victories that lifted them out of the playout zone. Their 2-0 win over Juve Stabia on March 8 was particularly encouraging, showcasing a more balanced and disciplined performance. In their last five matches, Mantova have recorded two wins, one draw, and two defeats, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Their season record stands at 8 wins, 6 draws, and 15 losses, with an average of 1.0 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match.

Despite their overall inconsistency, Mantova have shown resilience in key moments. They have scored at least one goal before halftime in each of their last eleven Serie B matches, a sign of their attacking intent from the start. However, their away form remains a concern, having trailed at halftime in their last three away fixtures. On the other hand, their matches tend to be lively, with over 7.5 corners recorded in 19 of their last 20 league games — a statistic that underlines their open style of play.

Currently sitting 16th in the table, Mantova’s recent performances suggest they are capable of competing with teams above them. Their improved defensive organization and ability to capitalize on counterattacks could make them a dangerous opponent for an Empoli side under pressure.

Empoli vs Mantova Analysis and Prediction

This encounter has all the ingredients of a tight and nervy relegation battle. Empoli will be desperate to end their winless streak and regain confidence in front of their supporters, while Mantova will look to exploit the hosts’ defensive lapses. The previous meeting between the two sides, played on December 21, ended 1-0 in favor of Empoli, but the dynamics have shifted since then. Mantova’s recent improvement and Empoli’s ongoing struggles suggest a more balanced contest this time.

From a statistical perspective, both teams have similar scoring averages, but Empoli’s defensive record is slightly worse. The probability figures indicate a close matchup: Empoli win (46%), draw (28%), and Mantova win (26%). The Both Teams To Score – No outcome is slightly favored (54%), while the Under 2.5 goals option also appears more likely (54%). These numbers align with the cautious nature expected in a match where neither side can afford mistakes.

Given the current trends, Mantova’s momentum and Empoli’s lack of confidence could tilt the balance slightly toward the visitors avoiding defeat. The visitors’ recent victories and Empoli’s prolonged winless run make the Double Chance (X2) a logical and value-oriented prediction for this fixture.

Empoli vs Mantova prediction by BetMines: Double Chance (X2) with 54% probability.