The clash between Empoli and Monza at the Stadio Carlo Castellani on Wednesday, October 1, 2025, is shaping up to be one of the most intriguing fixtures of the Serie B midweek round. Both clubs were tipped as strong contenders for promotion at the start of the season, yet their early performances have fallen short of expectations. Empoli sit in a disappointing 15th place, hovering just above the relegation zone, while Monza are slightly better off in 9th, but still far from the automatic promotion spots. With both sides under pressure to deliver, this encounter could prove pivotal in setting the tone for the weeks ahead.

Empoli’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Empoli have endured a difficult start to the campaign, collecting just one win in their opening five matches (W1, D2, L2). Their most recent outing ended in a 2-2 draw against Carrarese on September 28, a result that extended their winless streak to five games across all competitions. The Tuscan side have struggled defensively, conceding an average of 2.2 goals per match this season, and at least one goal in each of their last 15 fixtures. Their defensive fragility is further highlighted by the fact that they have allowed over 1.5 goals in their last 10 matches.

Offensively, Empoli have shown glimpses of potential, averaging 1.4 goals per game this season. However, their inability to keep clean sheets has consistently undermined their efforts. Matches involving Empoli tend to be open and high-scoring, with over 0.5 goals scored in 39 of their last 40 games, and goals in the second half in each of their last 10 fixtures. Despite their poor form, playing at home could provide a much-needed boost, especially with the pressure mounting on the squad to turn their season around.

Monza’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Monza have also experienced a mixed start to the season, with two wins, one draw, and two defeats from their opening five matches. Their most recent game ended in a disappointing 0-1 home defeat to Padova on September 27, a result that frustrated their supporters. In their last five outings, Monza have recorded two wins, one draw, and two losses, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per match. This highlights a more conservative approach compared to Empoli, with their games generally producing fewer goals.

One major concern for Monza is their away record. The Lombardy side have conceded at least one goal in each of their last 17 away matches, a worrying trend as they prepare to face an Empoli side desperate for points. Despite this, Monza’s defense has been relatively solid overall this season, conceding fewer goals than their opponents. Their attack, however, has lacked consistency, with just four goals scored in five league matches. To secure a positive result at Castellani, Monza will need to find more cutting edge in the final third while maintaining their defensive discipline.

Empoli vs Monza Prediction and Tactical Overview

This fixture brings together two sides with contrasting styles and current form. Empoli have been involved in high-scoring matches due to their defensive weaknesses, while Monza have leaned towards tighter, low-scoring affairs. Historically, the head-to-head record between the two clubs is balanced, with Empoli winning two, Monza winning two, and one draw in their last five meetings. Their most recent encounter ended in a 1-3 victory for Monza in May 2025.

Given Empoli’s defensive struggles and Monza’s cautious approach, this match could be decided by which side manages to impose their rhythm. Empoli will look to exploit Monza’s poor away record, while Monza will aim to frustrate their hosts and capitalize on counter-attacking opportunities. With bookmakers offering very balanced odds, the outcome is far from predictable, but the pressure on both teams suggests a tense and hard-fought contest.

Empoli vs Monza prediction from BetMines: Home Win (1) with 44% probability.