At the Stadio Castellani, Roberto D'Aversa’s Empoli face one of their last chances to stay in the top flight as they host direct relegation rivals Parma, coached by Christian Chivu, in the Saturday night fixture of Serie A Round 36. The standings leave no room for interpretation: Empoli are second from bottom with 25 points after 35 matches, two points behind Lecce, who sit just above the relegation zone and face another crucial clash against Hellas Verona. Parma, meanwhile, are 15th with 32 points, six clear of Venezia in 18th. With only nine points left to play for, Empoli must win and hope for slip-ups from Lecce and Venezia to climb out of the bottom three, potentially swapping places with the Salentini. On the other hand, Parma could mathematically secure safety with a win in Tuscany, especially if Venezia fail to beat Fiorentina, and they will be eager to bounce back from a home loss to Como. Beyond the calculations, this match pits two teams experiencing very different ends to the season: the Azzurri have lost their last two games and haven’t won in Serie A since December, while the Crociati, despite their recent defeat, had gone on a seven-game unbeaten run in March and April that helped lift them away from danger. Given what’s at stake—last hopes of survival and possible safety—it’s expected to be a tense and nervy match. Empoli will also be without their main striker Lorenzo Colombo, who was sent off against Lazio.

Empoli Recent Form and Key Stats

Empoli are coming off a 0-1 home defeat to Lazio, finishing the match with 10 men due to Colombo’s red card, which rules him out for the Parma clash. That marked their second straight loss after a 2-1 defeat to Fiorentina. Over their last five matches, Empoli have suffered four defeats and drawn once, scoring only 4 goals and conceding 10.

D'Aversa’s side have been the worst home scorers in Serie A this season—just 7 goals in 17 home matches, while conceding 23. They’ve actually fared better away from home (10 points vs 15), with their last home win dating back to November (1-0 vs Como). Since the start of 2025, Empoli have collected just 3 points at the Castellani, drawing against Bologna, Cagliari, and Venezia.

Parma Recent Form and Key Stats

Parma’s 0-1 home defeat to Como ended a seven-match unbeaten streak (6 draws, 1 win). The Larians scored ten minutes from time through Strefezza, although Parma missed several chances to at least equalize. It was an unexpected setback considering Parma had drawn 2-2 away at Lazio and beaten Juventus 1-0 shortly before.

Among the relegation battlers, Parma boast the best attack, though they average just 0.88 goals per game away from home, compared to 1.53 conceded. Chivu’s side have won only once on the road this season—last November against Venezia—and are currently on a four-match away draw streak (vs Monza, Verona, Fiorentina, and Lazio).

Empoli vs Parma Prediction and Tactical Overview

Empoli are the lowest-scoring home team in Serie A and will be without the suspended Lorenzo Colombo, who has scored 5 league goals, and the injured Kouamé. These absences in attack are significant, especially for a team that has scored just two goals in their last seven home games.

Parma, aside from the 2-2 draw at Lazio, have scored only two goals in their previous five away matches. Christian Chivu also has several attacking absentees, including Mihaila, Cancellieri, Almqvist, and key midfielder Bernabé.

For these reasons, the Empoli vs Parma prediction from the BetMines algorithm suggests a low-scoring affair with under 2.5 total goals.

• Empoli vs Parma prediction by BetMines algorithm: Over 2.5 goals at 45%
  
  
• Empoli vs Parma prediction by BetMines algorithm: Under 2.5 goals at 55%

Looking at previous encounters, the last three Serie A meetings between these two teams resulted in two draws and a Parma win during the 2018/19 season. Earlier this season, the reverse fixture ended 1-1, with Empoli taking the lead through a Coulibaly own goal and Parma equalizing late with Charpentier after Bonny had missed a penalty.

Empoli vs Parma Predicted Lineups

EMPOLI (3-4-2-1): Vasquez; Goglichidze, Ismajli, Viti; Gyasi, Henderson, Grassi, Pezzella; Cacace, Fazzini; Esposito. Coach: Roberto D'Aversa

PARMA (3-4-1-2): Suzuki; Delprato, Leoni, Valenti; Hainaut, Keita, Sohm, Valeri; Ondrejka; Bonny, Pellegrino. Coach: Christian Chivu