The Serie B 2025/26 season resumes with an intriguing clash between Empoli and Südtirol at the Castellani Stadium this Saturday afternoon. It marks the first round of the second half of the campaign, and both sides enter the match with contrasting ambitions but similar needs for consistency. Empoli aim to strengthen their position in the upper half of the table, while Südtirol continue their battle to stay clear of the relegation zone. The encounter promises to be balanced, as both teams have shown a tendency to draw frequently this season.

Empoli’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Empoli currently sit 8th in the Serie B standings, a position that reflects a season of ups and downs. Their recent 0-1 away win against Cesena on January 10 was a much-needed boost after a mixed run of results. Over their last five matches, Empoli have recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 defeats, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. Despite their inconsistency, the Tuscan side remain within reach of the playoff zone, though automatic promotion seems distant at the moment.

At home, Empoli’s cautious approach has often led to stalemates. They have drawn 6 of their 10 home fixtures so far, a statistic that underlines their struggle to turn dominance into victories. However, they have found the net in each of their last 13 home matches, showing that scoring is rarely the issue — rather, it’s about maintaining leads. Another notable trend is that over 0.5 goals have been scored in the second half in 22 of their last 24 games, suggesting that Empoli often come alive after the break.

• Serie B record: 7 wins, 6 draws, 6 losses


• Average goals scored: 1.4 per match


• Average goals conceded: 1.3 per match


• Unbeaten in last 2 home matches


• Over 0.5 goals in second half: 22 of last 24 matches

Empoli’s main challenge lies in finding the right balance between their solid defensive structure and a more proactive attacking approach. If they can maintain their recent momentum from the Cesena victory, they could consolidate their top-eight position and push closer to the playoff spots.

Südtirol’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Südtirol approach this fixture with the clear objective of avoiding relegation. Currently 14th in the table, they have shown resilience but also inconsistency. Their latest 2-1 win over Spezia on January 10 ended a run of three consecutive draws and provided a morale boost. Over their last five matches, Südtirol have registered 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 defeat, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game — figures that highlight their defensive discipline but limited attacking output.

On the road, Südtirol have been particularly conservative. They have drawn 8 of their away fixtures this season, the highest number in the league, and are still searching for their first away victory of the campaign. In fact, their last away win dates back to the previous season. The team’s matches tend to be low-scoring affairs, with under 3.5 goals recorded in each of their last 14 Serie B games. Additionally, under 9.5 corners have been taken in their last 13 away matches, confirming their cautious style of play.

• Serie B record: 3 wins, 10 draws, 6 losses


• Average goals scored: 1.0 per match


• Average goals conceded: 1.2 per match


• Under 3.5 goals in last 14 matches


• Lost at half time in last 3 away games

While Südtirol’s defensive organization keeps them competitive, their inability to secure wins away from home remains a major concern. Their pragmatic approach often leads to tight contests, but without more attacking efficiency, they risk being dragged into the relegation battle as the season progresses.

Empoli vs Südtirol Analysis and Prediction

When these two sides met earlier in the season, Empoli claimed a 2-1 away victory, continuing their positive head-to-head record with two wins from two encounters. Historically, their meetings have produced goals, with an average of 3.5 scored by Empoli and 1.0 conceded. However, given both teams’ current tendencies — Empoli’s home draws and Südtirol’s away stalemates — another balanced and low-scoring match could be on the cards.

Empoli’s home advantage and slightly superior attacking numbers make them marginal favorites, but Südtirol’s defensive resilience cannot be underestimated. The visitors have proven difficult to break down, and their record of 10 draws this season suggests they are specialists in frustrating opponents. With both teams averaging around one goal per game, the likelihood of a tight contest is high.

Statistically, the probabilities for the 1X2 market are evenly distributed: Empoli win 39%, Draw 31%, Südtirol win 31%. The Under 2.5 goals scenario also appears strong, with a 60% probability, while Both Teams To Score – No stands at 60%. These figures align with the overall trend of cautious football from both sides.

Considering all factors — Empoli’s home form, Südtirol’s away record, and the statistical balance — a draw seems the most plausible outcome. It would reflect both teams’ current dynamics and maintain their respective streaks of tight, low-scoring matches.

Empoli vs Südtirol prediction by BetMines:
Draw (X) with 31% probability.