Estoril welcome Casa Pia in a crucial Liga Portugal fixture on Sunday, September 20, 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 17:00 at the Estádio António Coimbra da Mota. The seventh-round meeting brings together the bottom two teams in the competition, both of whom are still searching for their first league victory of the season. Estoril are 17th with two points after recording two draws and four defeats, while Casa Pia sit 18th with one draw and five losses. Recent form has done little to ease the pressure: each side has collected only one point from its last five matches. With an international break approaching and both Vasco Matos and Filipe Coelho under pressure, this encounter could have a major influence on the immediate direction of the two teams. Estoril have a slight statistical advantage, but their own attacking difficulties mean that Casa Pia cannot be dismissed despite arriving with the league's weakest defensive record.

Estoril Recent Form and Key Statistics

Estoril enter this home match after a 1-0 defeat away to Sporting Braga on September 14. That result extended a difficult five-game sequence in which the Canaries have registered no wins, one draw and four losses. They have averaged only 0.2 goals scored per match during that run while conceding 1.4, numbers that underline how little margin for error they have had.

The broader Liga Portugal record is similarly challenging. Vasco Matos's team have taken two draws from six fixtures, losing the other four, with season averages of 0.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game. The defensive figure is considerably better than Casa Pia's, but Estoril's lack of goals has prevented them from turning competitive performances into victories. They have also been behind at half-time in eight of their last 12 Liga Portugal matches, making their approach to the opening period especially important.

Vasco Matos is attempting to rebuild competitiveness after changes to the squad, which included the departures of Kévin Boma and Felix Bacher. He must now prepare for this fixture without Ferro, who was sent off against Sporting Braga. Young English international Samuel Amissah could replace him and make his first start of the season. Despite those defensive adjustments, the main objective remains clear: Estoril need to improve an attack that has averaged well below one goal per game.

• Liga Portugal record: zero wins, two draws and four defeats.
• Last five matches: one draw and four losses.
• Recent scoring average: 0.2 goals per match across the last five.
• Half-time trend: behind at the interval in eight of their last 12 league games.

Casa Pia Recent Form and Key Statistics

Casa Pia arrive in Estoril after losing 4-1 to Porto on September 12. Henrique Araújo scored from the penalty spot to give Filipe Coelho's side their first lead of the season, but the advantage did not last as their defensive problems resurfaced. That defeat followed a campaign in which their only point has come from a goalless draw with Vitória SC in the fifth round.

The visitors have scored just one league goal while conceding 15, leaving them with the worst attacking and defensive records in the competition. Their six-match record stands at zero wins, one draw and five defeats, with averages of 0.2 goals scored and 2.5 conceded per fixture. Over the last five games, their concession rate rises to 2.8 goals per match. The 4-1 reverse against Porto was not their only heavy loss, as Casa Pia were also beaten 7-0 by Benfica in the second round.

Goalkeeper André Gomes remains injured and is expected to miss the trip. Ivan Mandic has provided a strong response in his two appearances and is set to retain the position. Jeremy Livolant, meanwhile, could return following a disciplinary process. Those potential changes must be accompanied by greater defensive stability if Casa Pia are to secure their first victory or even improve on a run of four defeats and one draw from the last five matches.

• Liga Portugal record: zero wins, one draw and five defeats.
• Season averages: 0.2 goals scored and 2.5 conceded per match.
• Last five matches: one draw and four defeats.
• Most recent result: a 4-1 home loss against Porto.

Estoril vs Casa Pia Match Analysis

This fixture pairs two teams with almost identical recent results but different defensive profiles. Both have failed to win any of their last five matches and both have averaged just 0.2 goals scored over that period. The main separation comes at the other end: Estoril have conceded an average of 1.4 goals in those games, exactly half Casa Pia's figure of 2.8. That difference helps explain why the hosts have been assigned a 44% win probability, compared with 27% for the draw and 28% for an away victory.

However, a clear Estoril victory is far from guaranteed. Their low scoring average could make it difficult to exploit Casa Pia's defensive vulnerability, while the visitors have shown very little attacking output of their own. The goal-market probabilities reflect that uncertainty: both teams to score is divided evenly between Yes and No at 50%, while Under 2.5 goals carries a 55% probability against 45% for Over 2.5.

The recent head-to-head record also points toward a balanced contest. The latest meeting finished 0-0 on March 7, 2026, while the overall summary shows one Estoril win, three draws and one Casa Pia victory. Across those meetings, the average stands at one goal scored and one conceded for each side. Goalless matches have also appeared in two of Estoril's last 10 home league fixtures and three of Casa Pia's last 10 away league games.

There are reasons for both teams to take more risks because a first victory would provide an important lift before the upcoming break. Even so, their limited production in front of goal and the goalless outcome of the latest direct meeting suggest that chances may not be converted regularly. Estoril's stronger defensive numbers and home advantage give them the clearer route to three points, but the most consistent theme in the available statistics is the shortage of goals from both attacks.

Estoril vs Casa Pia prediction from BetMines: Under 2.5 goals with 55% probability.