The upcoming clash between Estrela da Amadora and Casa Pia promises to be a tense and decisive encounter in the battle for survival in Liga Portugal. Scheduled for Friday evening, this fixture opens the 27th round of the competition and brings together two neighboring teams separated by just one point in the standings. Both sides are fighting to avoid the relegation playoff zone, making this match a crucial step toward securing top-flight status for next season.

Estrela da Amadora’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Estrela da Amadora enter this match after a 2-1 defeat against Rio Ave, extending their winless streak to five games. The team currently sits 14th in the table with 25 points, just one ahead of Casa Pia and three above the relegation playoff position. Their recent form shows 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in the last five matches, with an average of 0.8 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per game. Over the course of the season, Estrela have recorded 5 wins, 10 draws, and 11 defeats, averaging 1.1 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per match.

At home, Estrela have shown mixed results, collecting 13 points in front of their fans. The team’s main challenge has been consistency in attack, as they often struggle to convert possession into goals. Despite this, their home advantage could play a key role in this fixture, especially given the importance of the match for their survival hopes.

• Ranking: 14th place in Liga Portugal


• Last 5 matches: 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 defeats


• Average goals: 1.1 scored, 1.7 conceded per match


• Last result: Lost 2-1 vs Rio Ave

Casa Pia’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Casa Pia come into this fixture following a goalless draw against Estoril. The team currently occupies 15th place with 24 points, just one behind Estrela da Amadora. Their recent run of form has been more stable, with 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 defeat in their last five matches. Casa Pia have averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per game during this period, showing a more balanced defensive performance compared to their opponents.

Throughout the season, Casa Pia have registered 5 wins, 9 draws, and 11 losses, with an average of 1.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per match. Away from home, they have been relatively competitive, earning 12 points on the road. However, their matches tend to be low-scoring, with under 0.5 total goals recorded in 3 of their last 10 league games and in 4 of their last 17 away fixtures.

• Ranking: 15th place in Liga Portugal


• Last 5 matches: 1 win, 3 draws, 1 defeat


• Average goals: 1.0 scored, 1.8 conceded per match


• Last result: Drew 0-0 vs Estoril

Head-to-Head and Tactical Overview

Historically, the meetings between Estrela da Amadora and Casa Pia have been competitive. In their last encounter, Casa Pia hosted Estrela in a thrilling 3-5 match, showing that both sides are capable of producing high-scoring games when given space to attack. Across their last five head-to-head clashes, Estrela have won three times and lost twice, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match.

Given the current context, this fixture is expected to be a tight and tactical battle. Estrela will look to capitalize on their home advantage and end their winless streak, while Casa Pia will aim to maintain their recent defensive solidity and continue their steady climb away from the relegation zone. Both teams have shown limitations in attack, which could lead to a cautious start before the game opens up in the second half.

• Head-to-head record: Estrela Amadora 3 wins, Casa Pia 2 wins


• Last meeting: Casa Pia 3-5 Estrela Amadora (2025-11-01)


• Average goals in H2H: 3.0 per match

Estrela da Amadora vs Casa Pia Prediction and Analysis

With both teams separated by a single point and sharing similar season trajectories, this match could be decided by small details. Estrela’s home advantage and the need to bounce back after five winless games might give them a slight psychological edge. Casa Pia, on the other hand, have been more consistent recently and could rely on their defensive organization to frustrate the hosts.

Statistically, the probability model gives Estrela da Amadora a 40% chance of winning, while Casa Pia have a 32% chance, and the draw stands at 28%. The Both Teams To Score – No outcome is slightly favored at 52%, and the Under 2.5 goals scenario appears more likely with a 57% probability. These figures suggest a balanced and potentially low-scoring contest, where one goal could make the difference.

Estrela da Amadora vs Casa Pia prediction from BetMines: Under 2.5 goals with 57% probability.