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Estudiantes
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Boca Juniors
Prediction published on Jan 27, 2026 2:03 AM by Dario in Argentina - Liga Profesional de Fútbol | Modified on Jan 27, 2026 2:03 AM
The second round of the 2026 Torneo Apertura will feature a thrilling clash between Estudiantes de La Plata and Boca Juniors, scheduled for Wednesday evening at the Jorge Luis Hirschi Stadium. The reigning champions from La Plata will look to secure their first win of the campaign after a balanced debut, while Boca arrive with confidence following a narrow victory in their opening match. Both sides are among the early contenders for the title, and this encounter promises to be one of the highlights of the round.
Estudiantes began their title defense with a 1-1 draw away to Independiente on January 23, a result that left mixed feelings. Despite playing with a numerical advantage for much of the second half, they were unable to turn dominance into three points. The team’s recent record, however, remains impressive: three wins and two draws in their last five matches across all competitions, with an average of 1.6 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded per game.
In the Liga Profesional de Fútbol, Estudiantes currently sit 7th in the standings with one point. Their defensive consistency continues to be a defining trait — Under 3.5 goals have been recorded in each of their last 16 league matches, and in 19 of their last 20 overall. At home, the trend is similar, with Under 3.5 goals in their last 11 home fixtures. Another notable pattern is their cautious first halves: Under 1.5 goals at half time in the last 13 league games, and at least one team failing to score before the break in 28 consecutive matches.
Although Estudiantes have lost their last two home games, their overall form suggests a team that remains difficult to beat. As the defending champions, they will be eager to reassert dominance in front of their fans and maintain momentum in the early stages of the season.
Boca Juniors opened their campaign with a 1-0 home win over Deportivo Riestra on January 25, courtesy of a header from Di Lollo after a cross from Leandro Paredes. That result extended their strong run of form, with four wins and one defeat in their last five matches, averaging 1.2 goals scored and just 0.2 conceded per game. In the league, Boca currently occupy 6th place with three points and a perfect defensive record so far.
Their consistency has been remarkable: Boca have not trailed at half time in 22 of their last 23 league matches, and Under 1.5 goals at half time has occurred in 21 of those 23. However, the second halves often bring more action, with Over 0.5 goals scored after the break in 18 of their last 20 games. This pattern highlights a team that grows stronger as matches progress, often finding decisive goals late on.
Historically, Boca have had the upper hand in this fixture. In the last five head-to-head meetings, they have recorded two wins and three draws, including a 2-1 victory in November 2025. Estudiantes have struggled to overcome them, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per encounter during that span.
This matchup brings together two sides with contrasting approaches but similar ambitions. Estudiantes rely on structure, defensive discipline, and efficiency in front of goal, while Boca Juniors have shown a pragmatic yet effective style, often controlling the tempo and capitalizing on key moments. Given both teams’ recent trends, the first half could be tight and low-scoring, with the game likely opening up after the interval.
Both teams have reasons to be confident. Estudiantes will count on home advantage and the motivation of defending their crown, while Boca’s recent away form — four wins in their last six road matches — suggests they are capable of handling pressure in hostile environments. The duel could hinge on small details, such as set pieces or defensive lapses, especially considering the balanced nature of their recent encounters.
With both sides aiming to stay near the top of the table, this fixture could play a key role in shaping early-season momentum. Expect a competitive and tactical battle, where patience and precision in the final third will be decisive.
BetMines analysis points to a balanced contest, with win probabilities of 42% for Estudiantes, 28% for a draw, and 30% for Boca Juniors. Considering the attacking potential on both sides and their recent scoring patterns, the most likely outcome is Over 1.5 goals in the match, reflecting the expectation of at least a couple of decisive moments despite both teams’ defensive solidity.
Estudiantes de La Plata vs Boca Juniors prediction from BetMines: Over 1.5 goals with 58% probability.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Estudiantes
Boca Juniors
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
1
9
0
10
1.5
5
5
4
6
2.5
8
2
7
3
3.5
10
0
9
1
4.5
10
0
10
0