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Prediction published on Mar 19, 2026 8:02 PM by Dario in England - Premier League | Modified on Mar 19, 2026 8:02 PM
The upcoming Premier League clash between Everton and Chelsea promises to be a tense and competitive encounter. With only eight matches left in the season, both sides are still fighting for European qualification. Everton currently sit eighth in the table, while Chelsea are sixth, holding a five-point advantage. Both teams come into this fixture after suffering defeats, and the stakes are high as they look to bounce back. The home side will hope that playing at Hill Dickinson Stadium gives them the edge they need to close the gap.
Everton saw their two-match winning streak end with a 2-0 defeat away to Arsenal on March 14, a result that left them with 43 points in the Premier League standings. Despite the loss, their performance showed resilience, and they will look to build on that as they return home. The Toffees have recorded 12 wins, 7 draws, and 11 defeats this season, averaging 1.1 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match. Their home record, however, remains inconsistent, with only five wins in fifteen league games at Hill Dickinson.
In their last five matches, Everton have managed 2 wins and 3 defeats, scoring an average of 1.2 goals per game while conceding 1.4. They have been involved in matches where over 0.5 goals have been scored in the second half in each of their last 13 fixtures, showing that their games often open up after the break. However, they tend to start cautiously — in 33 of their last 35 matches, at least one team failed to score in the first half.
Everton’s defensive structure has shown signs of improvement, particularly in their recent 2-0 home win over Burnley. The team will aim to replicate that solidity against Chelsea, especially after conceding two late goals against Arsenal. With a full week to prepare, the hosts will hope to take advantage of their fresher legs and home support.
Chelsea arrive at this match under pressure after a heavy 3-0 defeat to Paris Saint Germain in the Champions League on March 17. That result extended their poor run, with only one win in their last five matches across all competitions. In that period, they have recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 defeats, scoring an average of 1.6 goals per game but conceding 2.4 — a clear sign of defensive instability.
In the Premier League, Chelsea’s record stands at 13 wins, 9 draws, and 8 losses, with an average of 1.8 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match. Their away form has been inconsistent, with only one win in their last eight visits to Everton. However, they have dominated recent head-to-head meetings, winning the last two and remaining unbeaten in the last four, all while keeping clean sheets.
Statistically, Chelsea’s matches have been lively. Over 0.5 goals have been scored in the second half in 19 of their last 20 games, and both teams scored at half time in their last four away fixtures. Despite this, they have also lost at half time in their last three matches, showing vulnerability early on. The Blues will need to tighten up defensively if they are to avoid a fourth consecutive defeat.
This fixture brings together two teams with contrasting recent fortunes but similar ambitions. Everton have been solid at home in patches, while Chelsea have struggled to find consistency on the road. The Toffees’ defensive discipline and ability to grow into games could prove decisive, especially given Chelsea’s tendency to concede in the second half. Everton’s attack has shown flashes of quality, and their recent home win should boost confidence.
On the other hand, Chelsea’s attacking potential remains high, but their defensive lapses have cost them dearly. Conceding 12 goals in their last five matches highlights their current fragility. The visitors will look to rediscover their rhythm, but fatigue from European competition and a mounting injury list could hinder their performance. Everton’s extra rest and home advantage might tilt the balance slightly in their favor.
Historically, this has been a tight matchup. The last head-to-head ended 2-0 in favor of Chelsea on December 13, 2025, but Everton will be eager to reverse that outcome. With both sides looking to recover from recent setbacks, fans can expect a competitive and potentially high-scoring encounter.
Given the current form and statistical trends, this match could feature goals at both ends. Everton’s home advantage and Chelsea’s defensive issues suggest that the hosts might have a slight edge. However, Chelsea’s attacking potential cannot be ignored, especially considering their record in this fixture. Expect a match that could swing either way but with a strong likelihood of goals after the break.
BetMines prediction: Over 2.5 goals with 55% probability.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Everton
Chelsea
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
0
10
0
10
1.5
0
10
3
7
2.5
2
8
4
6
3.5
5
5
8
2
4.5
8
2
9
1