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Prediction published on Nov 14, 2026 7:04 PM by Dario in Europe - UEFA Nations League | Modified on Nov 14, 2026 7:04 PM
Faroe Islands host Moldova on November 16, 2026, in the final round of UEFA Nations League C, Group 3. Kick-off is scheduled for 15:00 local time at Þórsvöllur in Akureyri. Second place is at stake: Moldova enter the match two points ahead of the third-placed Faroe Islands, so a draw would keep the visitors in front, while the hosts need a win to move above them. Their meeting on September 29 finished 1-1, and both sides arrive after scoring twice in their latest group fixtures. With the standings so close, the result of this match will settle which of them finishes second.
Faroe Islands have yet to lose in this UEFA Nations League campaign, but they have also yet to win. All five of their group matches have ended in draws, leaving them third despite an unbeaten record. Their most recent outing was a 2-2 draw with Slovakia on November 13. Across those five matches, they have averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game. Another draw would preserve their unbeaten run, but it would not close the two-point gap to Moldova.
The hosts can take encouragement from their recent home results: they are unbeaten in their last five matches at home, although the latest two both ended level. Turning a draw into a victory is the challenge in this final-round fixture. Keeping Moldova out may also prove difficult. Faroe Islands have conceded at least once in 20 of their last 21 home matches, and they have recorded only two clean sheets across their last 10 at home. Those figures make their ability to respond at the other end particularly relevant when a win is required.
Moldova moved into second place with a 2-1 victory over Kazakhstan on November 13, recovering from a 4-0 defeat to Slovakia. Their UEFA Nations League record now stands at two wins, one draw and two defeats. Over their last five matches, they have won twice, drawn once and lost twice, averaging 1.0 goal scored and 1.8 conceded per game. That mixed record contrasts with the Faroe Islands' sequence of draws, but Moldova hold the advantage that matters most before kick-off: a two-point lead.
The visitors' away results offer the hosts some encouragement, as Moldova have won only one of their last 11 matches on the road. Their recent games have also regularly featured goals. There have been over 1.5 total goals in Moldova's last 15 matches, while they have conceded at least once in each of those 15 fixtures. At the same time, their last 11 away UEFA Nations League matches have all finished with fewer than four total goals. That combination points to matches with scoring without necessarily suggesting a high-scoring contest.
The previous meetings provide another reason to expect a close contest. The teams have faced each other five times, with three draws and one win apiece. Their most recent encounter ended 1-1, while their head-to-head figures show an average of 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded by the Faroe Islands. Moldova's sole win in the series was also the only clean sheet recorded across those five meetings.
The different requirements in the standings give this fixture a clear balance. Faroe Islands must win to take second place, yet each of their five group games has finished level. Moldova need only a draw, though one win in 11 away outings gives them little reason to take the result for granted. Both teams scored twice on November 13, and the goal trends offer a useful guide: Moldova's last 15 matches have all passed the 1.5-goal mark, while Faroe Islands have averaged 1.4 goals scored per group game. Against that, Moldova's away Nations League record shows that these matches have stayed below four goals. The hosts' need for a victory and the visitors' slim lead make this a finely balanced final-round meeting.
Faroe Islands vs Moldova prediction from BetMines: Over 1.5 goals with 72% probability.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Faroe Islands
Moldova
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
0
10
0
10
1.5
3
7
0
10
2.5
6
4
4
6
3.5
7
3
6
4
4.5
10
0
8
2