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Prediction published on Oct 16, 2026 3:07 PM by Dario in Netherlands - Eredivisie | Modified on Oct 16, 2026 3:07 PM
FC Groningen host Ajax at Euroborg on October 18, 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 14:45 local time. The Eredivisie fixture brings together the teams in sixth and fifth place respectively. Groningen have responded to a four-match winless spell with two emphatic victories, while Ajax arrive with a more mixed set of recent results. Both sides have scored freely this season, making their attacking records a central part of this match preview.
FC Groningen have found a strong response to their winless run. They beat PEC Zwolle 3-0 before winning 5-1 away to Excelsior on October 11. Those results stand in contrast to the earlier 2-3 defeat against Fortuna Sittard and 5-1 loss to PSV Eindhoven, matches that showed how costly defensive lapses can be even when Groningen remain capable of scoring.
Across their last five matches, Groningen have recorded two wins, two draws and one defeat, averaging 2.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Their Eredivisie record stands at four wins, two draws and two losses, with season averages of 2.5 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game. The recent victories give the home side momentum, but those figures also underline why maintaining their attacking output could matter against Ajax.
Groningen's league matches have produced over 1.5 total goals in each of the last 13. At least one first-half goal has been scored in all 13 of those games, and Groningen have led at half-time in their last three Eredivisie outings. Their matches have featured a second-half goal in 21 of the last 23 league fixtures. Together, those trends suggest that the action has not been confined to one stage of their games.
Ajax sit one place above Groningen, but their results have lacked consistency. A 5-1 victory over Fortuna Sittard was followed by dropped points in a 1-1 draw with NEC Nijmegen and a 2-2 draw with Excelsior. Their most recent listed result was a 2-1 defeat to Hajduk Split on October 15. Across their last five matches, Ajax have two wins, two draws and one loss, matching Groningen's results over the same span.
The visitors nevertheless bring a substantial scoring record into this fixture. Ajax have averaged 2.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded across their last five matches. In the Eredivisie this season, they have won four, drawn three and lost one, averaging 2.8 goals for and 1.3 against per game. They have scored at least once in each of their last 15 matches, while all 15 have featured over 1.5 total goals. Those runs show why Groningen will need to account for Ajax's attacking threat even after the visitors' recent draws and defeat.
There is also a notable first-half pattern in Ajax's away league games: they have not trailed at half-time in their last 13 Eredivisie matches on the road and have led at the break in six of their last ten away matches. At least one first-half goal has been scored in their last 11 matches overall. Ajax therefore travel to Euroborg with both a sustained scoring run and a record of staying competitive before half-time away from home.
This meeting pairs Groningen's renewed form with Ajax's higher league position and stronger season scoring average. Groningen have scored eight goals across their wins over PEC Zwolle and Excelsior, while Ajax have averaged 2.8 per match in both their recent five-game sample and their Eredivisie campaign. Neither team's concession figures point to a consistently closed-off contest: Groningen have allowed 1.8 goals per league game, compared with 1.3 for Ajax.
The supplied head-to-head summary gives Groningen one win, one draw and three defeats against Ajax, with averages of 1.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. That record offers context, but Groningen's two latest wins provide a more immediate reason for confidence at home. Ajax, meanwhile, have scored in 15 straight matches and have avoided a half-time deficit throughout their last 13 away league fixtures. The key question is whether Groningen can carry their recent attacking form into this test while limiting the chances Ajax create.
Goals feature prominently in both teams' current trends. Each of Groningen's last 13 Eredivisie games and Ajax's last 15 matches has cleared 1.5 total goals, while the teams' season scoring averages are 2.5 and 2.8 respectively. Those numbers do not determine the result, but they make a match with several goals a coherent reading of the available evidence.
FC Groningen vs Ajax prediction from BetMines: Over 2.5 goals with 62% probability.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
FC Groningen
Ajax
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
0
10
0
10
1.5
1
9
0
10
2.5
2
8
1
9
3.5
4
6
2
8
4.5
6
4
6
4