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Prediction published on Aug 19, 2025 8:20 AM by Dario in Europe - Champions League | Modified on Aug 19, 2025 9:33 AM
After making their league debuts last weekend, Fenerbahce and Benfica face each other on Wednesday, August 20, in the first leg of a decisive playoff to qualify for the upcoming UEFA Champions League. At the Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium in Istanbul, the first leg of the UCL qualification playoff takes place, with the return fixture scheduled for August 27 at the Estádio da Luz. The hosts, led by the experienced José Mourinho, have been absent from Europe’s top competition since the 2008/09 season and return to a playoff 12 years after their last attempt, when they were eliminated by Arsenal. International experience is not lacking for the Turkish side, having taken part in the last three editions of the Europa League, reaching the Round of 16 twice. In the second qualifying round, Fenerbahce eliminated a tough opponent in Feyenoord: after losing 2-1 in Rotterdam, they sealed their spot with a dominant 5-2 win in the return leg. In their Turkish Super Lig opener, they only managed a draw against Goztepe, but it’s fair to assume their focus was already on this clash with the Portuguese giants. Benfica, on the other hand, met expectations in their Primeira Liga debut, defeating Estrela Amadora 1-0. Bruno Lage’s men are regulars in the Champions League, having participated in nearly every edition since 2010. Their experience, combined with a strong summer transfer campaign, was evident in their second-round tie against Nice, which they won 2-0 both home and away. On paper, Benfica are favorites to progress, but the first leg in Istanbul could hold surprises. While the Eagles will look to impose their European pedigree, the Turks are eager to return to the Champions League, driven by their passionate home crowd and Mourinho’s tactical acumen.
It’s been a mixed start to the season for Fenerbahce, with one win, one draw, and one defeat in their first three official matches of 2025/26. In their league opener on August 16, Mourinho’s side drew 0-0 away at Goztepe, failing to capitalize on a two-man advantage for 20 minutes and missing a 94th-minute penalty with Talisca.
For the clash against Benfica, the Portuguese manager will once again be without experienced center-back Rodrigo Becao. Even so, he seems likely to stick with a three-man defense, while up front John Duran and Youssef En-Nesyri should form the strike partnership. Sebastian Szymanski will operate behind them, with Brazilian Talisca expected to come off the bench.
Benfica head into this crucial encounter full of confidence, having won all four of their matches so far this season. After lifting the Super Cup against Sporting CP and eliminating Nice in the qualifiers, Bruno Lage’s men started their Primeira Liga campaign on August 16 with a 1-0 win over Estrela Amadora, thanks to a Pavlidis penalty.
Beyond their winning streak, what stands out is that Trubin and his teammates have yet to concede a single goal this season. However, the Portuguese side are missing several key players, including Bruma, Manu Silva, Alexander Bah, and Tomas Araujo. Up front, there is no doubt about Vangelis Pavlidis’ presence, who has already scored twice this season, supported by new signing Franjo Ivanovic.
José Mourinho knows very well that much of the qualification will be decided in this first leg in front of his home fans, given that overturning a poor result at the Estádio da Luz a week later would be extremely difficult.
For this reason, Fenerbahce are expected to take the initiative but must avoid losing possession in dangerous areas, which could open the door to Benfica’s counterattacks. The hosts will likely rely on their wing-backs, Brown and Semedo, to trouble the visitors’ defense and deliver dangerous balls to the two strikers.
Benfica, on the other hand, won’t need to force the tempo, with the return leg at home still to come. Bruno Lage’s side, weakened by absences, may concede their first goal of the season under Fenerbahce’s pressure. Still, given the defensive vulnerabilities shown by the Turkish side so far, Pavlidis and company are also expected to find the net.
FENERBAHCE (3-4-1-2): Egribayat; Muldur, Skirniar, Oosterwolde; Semedo, Amrabat, Fred, Brown; Szymanski; Duran, En-Nesyri. Coach: José Mourinho
BENFICA (4-4-2): Trubin; Dedic, Silva, Otamendi, Dahl; Aursnes, Barrenechea, Rios, Schjelderup; Pavlidis, Ivanovic. Coach: Bruno Lage
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Fenerbahçe
Benfica
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
1
9
0
10
1.5
2
8
0
10
2.5
3
7
2
8
3.5
5
5
6
4
4.5
8
2
9
1