On Thursday, October 23, at the Şükrü Saracoğlu Stadium in Istanbul, one of the most intriguing fixtures of UEFA Europa League Matchday 3 will take place: Fenerbahce hosts Stuttgart in a clash that could prove decisive in the qualification race. After the first two rounds, both teams sit level on three points, with the Turkish side slightly ahead thanks to a better goal difference. The home side, currently third in the Turkish Super Lig, aims to capitalize on home advantage to claim a victory that would move them closer to a spot in the Round of 16. Stuttgart, however, travels to Istanbul with the same goal: bouncing back after a heavy defeat against Basel and keeping pace with the group leaders. Although it’s still early in the campaign, this match already feels like a key European showdown: whoever wins will take a big step toward the knockout stage, while the loser risks complicating their European path.

Fenerbahce's Form and Key Stats

Currently third in the Turkish Super Lig with 19 points after nine rounds (5 wins, 4 draws), Fenerbahce comes into this match on a four-game unbeaten streak across the league and Europa League. In their most recent league fixture on October 19, they secured a 2-1 home win over Fatih Karagümrük thanks to goals from Talisca and Asensio.

The Yellow Canaries’ recent form has been positive: 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last five matches, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1 conceded per game. Despite the presence of experienced players like former Inter and PSG defender Skriniar, the backline has shown some weaknesses, conceding at least one goal in five of their last seven games.

In this Europa League campaign, the Turkish side has earned 3 points so far, losing 3-1 in their opening match against Dinamo Zagreb before bouncing back with a 2-1 win over Nice on Matchday 2. Domenico Tedesco’s men are unbeaten at home in their last 10 matches across all competitions and have lost only 2 of their last 15 Europa League home fixtures.

Stuttgart's Form and Key Stats

After losing 2-0 to Basel in the Europa League on October 2, Stuttgart responded with two consecutive Bundesliga wins, the most recent being a 3-0 away victory against Wolfsburg with goals from Tomas, Mittelstadt, and Stiller. After seven Bundesliga rounds, they sit third behind Bayern Munich and RB Leipzig, with 15 points (5 wins, 2 losses).

Sebastian Hoeness’ side has been performing consistently: in their last five matches across all competitions, they have recorded 4 wins and 1 loss, scoring an average of 1.6 goals per game while conceding just 0.8. The defense has improved significantly, keeping two consecutive clean sheets against Heidenheim and Wolfsburg.

However, Stuttgart has struggled for consistency on the road early this season. In four away games, they have alternated between 2 wins and 2 losses, averaging 1.5 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per match.

Fenerbahce vs Stuttgart Prediction by BetMines

According to BetMines, the prediction clearly favors the home side: Fenerbahce has a 55% chance of winning compared to Stuttgart’s 24%.

The main factor tipping the balance is home advantage: the Turkish team boasts a strong home record, even in European competition, while the German side has not always impressed away from home.

Considering both teams need valuable points for qualification, this should be an open and attacking game, with frequent transitions and several scoring opportunities.

In this context, Over 2.5 goals and Both Teams to Score appear to be the most likely outcomes, with probabilities of 62% and 59% respectively.

Supporting this trend is a striking stat: eight of Stuttgart’s last nine away matches have featured at least three total goals, confirming their entertaining yet unbalanced approach when playing away from home.

Probable Lineups Fenerbahce vs Stuttgart

FENERBAHCE (4-2-3-1): Cetin; Semedo, Oosterworlde, Soyuncu, Mercan; Alvarez, Yuksek; Doregeles, Asensio, Akturkoglu; Talisca. Coach: Tedesco

STUTTGART (3-4-2-1): Nubel; Hendriks, Jaquez, Chabot; Mittelstadt, Andres, Stiller, Assignon; Nartey, Tomas; El Khannouss. Coach: Hoeness