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Prediction published on Oct 24, 2025 2:11 PM by Dario in Italy - Serie A | Modified on Oct 24, 2025 4:13 PM
On Sunday, October 26, the Stadio Artemio Franchi will host the Derby of the Apennines between Fiorentina and Bologna, valid for Matchday 8 of Serie A. The home side, coming off two consecutive defeats, are still searching for their first league win of the season. With only three points collected so far (four defeats and three draws), Pioli’s team urgently needs a turning point to move away from the relegation zone and regain confidence. The visitors, on the other hand, continue to impress, confirming the solid performances shown in recent seasons. Vincenzo Italiano’s Bologna, facing his former club, are unbeaten in four matches and currently sit in a European qualification spot. A win would allow them to consolidate or even improve their fifth-place position. Both teams arrive from midweek European action, and the stakes are high: Fiorentina need to bounce back and climb the table, while Bologna aim to confirm themselves as one of the most consistent and convincing sides in this early part of the Serie A season.
Still without a win in the league, Fiorentina come into this match after a solid 0-3 away victory over SK Rapid in the UEFA Europa Conference League. In their last Serie A outing, played on October 19, the Viola suffered their fourth league defeat, losing 2-1 after a comeback against league leaders AC Milan.
Across their last five matches in all competitions, Fiorentina have recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 defeats, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game. However, it’s worth noting that both victories came in the Conference League against lower-ranked opponents.
Stefano Pioli’s side surprisingly sit near the bottom of the Serie A table with only 3 points (3 draws, 4 defeats) after seven games, scoring just 5 goals and conceding 10.
Ahead of the match against Bologna, former Milan coach Pioli will have Kean and Gosens back after they missed the Conference League fixture, while Gudmundsson is expected to start — a player from whom fans are expecting much more.
Bologna approach this match in great form, unbeaten in their last five games across all competitions. On Thursday, October 23, the Rossoblù defeated FCSB 1-2 away in the UEFA Europa League, while last weekend they beat Cagliari 0-2 on the road thanks to goals from Holm and Orsolini.
In their last five outings, Italiano’s men have earned 3 wins and 2 draws, averaging 2.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game. In particular, across their last three matches, they’ve scored 8 goals and allowed just 1, showing excellent balance between attack and defense.
After seven Serie A rounds, Bologna have collected 13 points (4 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses), scoring 11 goals and conceding 5.
For the match against Fiorentina, Italiano has a fully fit squad. However, some rotation is expected to rest key players after their Europa League effort. One of Orsolini or Odgaard — both heavily featured and performing well recently — could start from the bench.
The Derby of the Apennines in Serie A Matchday 8 promises to be one of the most exciting clashes of the weekend.
According to the BetMines algorithm, Fiorentina are slightly underdogs with a 34% chance of winning, while Bologna’s win probability stands at 38%. The suggested tip is to bet on Double Chance X2, predicting that the Rossoblù could remain unbeaten at the Franchi.
Recent head-to-head records confirm the expected balance: in the last five encounters, both teams have won twice, with one draw and an average of 2.2 goals per game.
From an attacking perspective, BetMines predicts an open and entertaining match, with over 2.5 total goals and both teams to score. Their last meeting, played on May 18, was a thriller: Fiorentina won 3-2 at home with goals from Parisi, Richardson, and Kean, while Dallinga and Orsolini scored for Bologna.
FIORENTINA (3-5-2): De Gea; Pongracic, Marì, Ranieri; Dodò, Mandragora, Nicolussi Caviglia, Fazzini, Gosens; Gudmundsson, Kean. Coach: Pioli
BOLOGNA (4-2-3-1): Skorupski; Holm, Vitik, Lucumì, Miranda; Freuler, Ferguson; Orsolini, Odgaard, Cambiaghi; Castro. Coach: Italiano
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Fiorentina
Bologna
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
2
8
1
9
1.5
4
6
2
8
2.5
7
3
6
4
3.5
9
1
7
3
4.5
10
0
9
1