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Prediction published on Oct 16, 2026 4:04 PM by Dario in Italy - Serie A | Modified on Oct 16, 2026 4:04 PM
Fiorentina host Como at the Stadio Artemio Franchi on October 18 in the seventh round of Serie A. The teams arrive with contrasting league records: Fiorentina have taken four points from six matches and sit 19th, while seventh-placed Como have collected 11. Yet the hosts’ broader recent form has improved since Vanoli replaced Grosso, making this a more open fixture than their league positions alone suggest. Fiorentina are looking to recover from a 2-1 defeat to Genoa; Como travel to Firenze after a 3-2 loss to Feyenoord on October 14.
Fiorentina have one win, one draw and four defeats in Serie A so far. They have averaged 1.2 goals scored and 2.3 conceded per league match, a defensive record that helps explain their difficult start. Their most recent league outing brought another setback: Genoa scored twice in the opening 15 minutes before Fiorentina fell to a 2-1 defeat on October 10.
There have also been signs of a response following the coaching change. Fiorentina won 4-2 away to Venezia and then beat Pisa in the Coppa Italia, scoring seven goals across those two games, before drawing 1-1 at home to Napoli. Across their last five matches, the structured form figures show three wins, one draw and one defeat, with averages of 3.6 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. The immediate challenge is to carry that stronger overall run into a league campaign in which results have been much harder to secure.
Goals have featured regularly in Fiorentina’s recent fixtures, with over 1.5 total goals in each of their last 10 matches. At the same time, all of their last 10 Serie A home games have finished with fewer than 3.5 goals. Those two trends leave room for a match with scoring opportunities without pointing to an unusually high final total. Fiorentina have also gained four points from losing positions this season while surrendering three from advantageous ones, underlining how much matches can change after the opening stages.
Nicolò Fagioli has been heavily involved in Fiorentina’s league play, recording 402 touches, 263 completed passes and 30 possession recoveries. In terms of availability, Fabiano Parisi is unavailable and Arthur Atta remains doubtful. Mateo Pellegrino is pushing for a place ahead of Beto.
Como have made the stronger Serie A start, winning three of their first six games, drawing two and losing one. Their 11-point total matches their best return after six matches, previously achieved in 1950-51. They have averaged 1.5 goals scored and 1.0 conceded per league outing, although their last two domestic results were a defeat to Frosinone and a 0-0 draw against Roma.
The Roma game was the first goalless draw of this Serie A season. Como played much of the second half with a numerical advantage following Malen’s dismissal but could not find a winner. Their latest match ended in European defeat: Assane Diao gave them an early lead against Feyenoord before they lost 3-2. Across Como’s last five matches, they have two wins, one draw and two defeats, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded.
Fàbregas’s side also face a demanding sequence of fixtures, with the trip to Fiorentina followed by a European game against Manchester United. Diao picked up a muscle problem against Feyenoord and remains doubtful, while Moise Kean’s physical condition needs assessing. Tasos Douvikas, who scored against Feyenoord, is a candidate to lead the attack; his last five league goals have all come away from home. Nico Paz has attempted 31 shots in Serie A but has scored once, giving him a stated conversion rate of 3.2%.
Como have produced 35 open-play sequences of at least 10 passes ending with a shot or a touch in the opposition penalty area, compared with Fiorentina’s 14. They have also been ahead at half-time in eight of their last 13 Serie A away matches. Those figures illustrate the visitors’ ability to build attacks, though their recent 0-0 with Roma shows that sustained possession does not always bring a goal.
The historical Serie A record is level at 11 wins each and six draws, but recent meetings have been more decisive. None of the last seven has ended level: Fiorentina have won three and Como four. In the last five head-to-head matches, Fiorentina have two wins and Como three; the most recent finished 2-1 to Como on February 14, 2026. Como have also won their two most recent league visits to the Franchi.
For Fiorentina, the question is whether their improved five-match form can outweigh a league record of four defeats in six and an average of 2.3 goals conceded. Como have been more consistent in Serie A and have the stronger league defensive average, but they come into this trip after a defeat to Feyenoord and have scored only twice across their last three matches. Fiorentina’s recent scoring rate and Como’s attacking output offer reasons to expect chances at both ends, while the hosts’ sequence of under 3.5 goals in home league games argues against assuming a goal-heavy contest.
Fiorentina vs Como prediction from BetMines: Both Teams To Score (Yes) with 54% probability.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Fiorentina
Como
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
0
10
2
8
1.5
0
10
2
8
2.5
2
8
5
5
3.5
6
4
7
3
4.5
7
3
7
3