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Prediction published on Apr 11, 2026 7:01 PM by Dario in Italy - Serie A | Modified on Apr 11, 2026 7:01 PM
The Serie A calendar closes its 32nd round with an intriguing clash between Fiorentina and Lazio at the Artemio Franchi Stadium in Florence. The match is scheduled for Monday, April 13, 2026, at 20:45, and both sides enter the contest with contrasting objectives but a shared desire to finish the season on a high note. Fiorentina are looking to consolidate their position away from the relegation zone, while Lazio aim to maintain their push in the upper half of the table.
Fiorentina come into this fixture after a tough 3-0 defeat against Crystal Palace in the first leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League quarter-finals. Despite that setback, the Viola managed to secure a crucial 1-0 victory over Hellas Verona in their previous Serie A outing, a result that lifted them to 16th place and extended their cushion to five points above the relegation zone.
In the domestic league, Fiorentina’s record stands at 7 wins, 11 draws, and 13 defeats, with an average of 1.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match. Their recent form shows signs of improvement, with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in their last five games, averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. The team has also shown resilience in the second half of matches, with over 0.5 goals scored after the break in 25 of their last 27 fixtures.
However, home performances have been inconsistent. Fiorentina have lost at half time in 8 of their last 13 home matches in Serie A, a trend they will need to reverse if they want to take advantage of the home crowd. Defensively, the side has improved, keeping clean sheets in three of their last six league matches after struggling earlier in the season. The absence of key players such as Albert Gudmundsson and Nicolò Fagioli due to suspension, along with injuries to Lamptey and doubts over Parisi, could still affect their stability. Nonetheless, the Viola remain unbeaten in their last four Serie A matches and have a positive head-to-head record against Lazio, with three wins, one draw, and one defeat in their last five meetings.
Lazio approach this encounter in solid form, having drawn 1-1 against Parma in their most recent league match. That result ended a run of three consecutive victories but confirmed their consistency in recent weeks. The Biancocelesti currently sit 9th in the Serie A standings, with a record of 11 wins, 11 draws, and 9 losses, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game.
Over their last five matches, Lazio have remained unbeaten, collecting 3 wins and 2 draws while averaging 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. Their defensive organization has been a key factor, particularly away from home, where they have lost only once in their last nine matches across all competitions. However, scoring on the road remains an issue — Lazio have failed to find the net in 9 of their 15 away league games this season.
Statistically, Lazio’s away matches tend to be tight affairs. Under 1.5 goals have been scored at half time in each of their last 13 away fixtures, and at least one team failed to score before the break in 37 of their last 40 matches overall. This pattern suggests a cautious approach early in games, with the team often relying on second-half adjustments to find breakthroughs. The squad faces some uncertainty due to injuries and fitness concerns, with players like Mattia Zaccagni and Luca Pellegrini under evaluation, while the attacking trio could feature Isaksen, Maldini, and Noslin.
This encounter promises to be a balanced and tactical battle. Fiorentina will look to capitalize on their home advantage and recent unbeaten streak, while Lazio’s disciplined defense and structured play could make them difficult to break down. The Viola’s tendency to grow stronger in the second half may clash with Lazio’s compact first-half approach, potentially leading to a match that opens up as time progresses.
Historically, this fixture has produced competitive results, with the last head-to-head ending 2-2 on January 7, 2026. Fiorentina’s recent improvement under their current management has been evident, especially in their defensive organization and ability to control possession. Lazio, on the other hand, continue to rely on their tactical discipline and quick transitions to create scoring opportunities. Given the statistical trends — Fiorentina’s frequent second-half goals and Lazio’s low-scoring away matches — a moderate goal count seems likely, with both teams capable of finding the net but unlikely to produce a high-scoring affair.
Based on the available data and recent performances, the BetMines prediction for this Serie A clash points towards a home win (1) with a probability of 41%. A draw (X) follows at 29%, while an away win (2) is estimated at 30%. Considering Fiorentina’s solid home record and Lazio’s tendency for low-scoring away games, the hosts appear slightly favored to edge this encounter in Florence.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Fiorentina
Lazio
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
2
8
0
10
1.5
4
6
1
9
2.5
7
3
7
3
3.5
9
1
9
1
4.5
10
0
9
1