Fiorentina host Pisa in the Coppa Italia round of 32 on Tuesday, September 15, 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 19:00 local time. The Tuscan derby at the Stadio Artemio Franchi is a single-match tie, and if the score remains level after 90 minutes, qualification will be decided directly by penalties. The winners will advance to face Napoli. Fiorentina enter the contest after an important 4-2 victory over Venezia, while Pisa must respond to a heavy 4-1 defeat against Virtus Entella. Recent results, home advantage and the available win probabilities make the Viola favorites, but the knockout format leaves little room for error.

Fiorentina's Recent Form and Key Stats

Fiorentina return to action only four days after beating Venezia 4-2 on September 11. Mastantuono scored a hat-trick in that match, helping the Viola rediscover a winning feeling after a difficult beginning to their league campaign. Their latest five matches have produced two victories and three defeats, with no draws. Across that sequence, Fiorentina have averaged 1.8 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per game, figures that underline both their attacking potential and their recent defensive vulnerability.

Their Coppa Italia numbers are more encouraging. Fiorentina have played one match in this season's competition and won it, averaging 4.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. That record, combined with the four goals registered at Venezia, provides a positive platform before this knockout fixture. The home side will nevertheless need to manage their workload carefully because of the short gap between matches.

Vanoli has to balance rotation with the need to remain competitive. The squad was built to cope with multiple commitments, but this tournament carries particular importance because Fiorentina do not have European competition on their schedule. The club are also seeking a trophy after a 25-year wait, giving the Coppa Italia a clear place among their objectives. Approximately 10,000 spectators are expected, and playing at the Stadio Artemio Franchi could offer the hosts an additional advantage.

• Fiorentina's last five matches: two wins and three defeats.
• They average 1.8 goals scored and 2.4 conceded across those five games.
• Their Coppa Italia record this season stands at one win from one match.
• Only three of their last 11 home matches have finished with under 0.5 total goals.

Pisa's Recent Form and Key Stats

Pisa make the trip after losing 4-1 to Virtus Entella on September 11. Their five-match record is more balanced than Fiorentina's, consisting of two wins, one draw and two defeats. During that period, Pisa have averaged 1.4 goals scored and the same number conceded per match. However, their latest result represents a significant setback immediately before a demanding cup derby.

In the current Coppa Italia campaign, Pisa have recorded one draw from one appearance, scoring and conceding an average of 1.0 goal per match. The broader defensive trend is a major concern: they have allowed at least one goal in 30 of their last 32 matches. Keeping Fiorentina quiet will therefore be a difficult assignment, particularly after the Viola scored four times in their most recent outing.

The visitors must also address their starts away from home. Pisa have been behind at half-time in seven of their last 11 away matches. Falling behind early at the Franchi could make the tie especially complicated, as Fiorentina would then have the opportunity to manage the contest from a position of control. Pisa's challenge is to avoid carrying the effects of the Virtus Entella defeat into this derby and to remain competitive throughout the opening stages.

• Pisa's last five matches: two wins, one draw and two defeats.
• They average 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded in that run.
• Pisa have conceded in 30 of their last 32 matches.
• They have trailed at half-time in seven of their last 11 away fixtures.

Fiorentina vs Pisa Match Analysis

The available data points toward Fiorentina having the stronger chance of progressing. The hosts are assigned a 59% win probability, compared with 22% for a draw after 90 minutes and 19% for a Pisa victory. Fiorentina's recent defensive average remains a warning sign, but their four-goal displays in both their latest match and their opening Coppa Italia appearance demonstrate the attacking output available to them.

There is also a notable contrast between Fiorentina's revived confidence and Pisa's defensive record. The visitors have conceded with great regularity, while their tendency to trail at half-time away from home could allow the Viola to establish control early. Pisa can still draw encouragement from scoring an average of 1.4 goals across their latest five matches, although the probability model gives Both Teams To Score (No) a narrow 55% edge over Yes at 45%.

The goals market is closely balanced, with Over 2.5 goals rated at 54% and Under 2.5 at 46%. Recent results support the possibility of an open encounter: Fiorentina won 4-2 and Pisa lost 4-1 in their respective September 11 fixtures. However, the head-to-head data presents a more restrained picture. Fiorentina won the latest meeting 1-0 on February 23, 2026, and the overall summary from the listed meetings gives them one victory and one draw, with an average of 0.5 goals scored and none conceded.

Those contrasting indicators make game management important. Fiorentina need to convert their superiority into a controlled performance rather than allowing the match to become unnecessarily unpredictable. Pisa, meanwhile, require a more secure defensive display than the one produced against Virtus Entella. With a place in the next round against Napoli at stake and penalties waiting if the teams are level after 90 minutes, the home side's stronger win probability and positive cup record provide the clearest direction for this preview.

Fiorentina vs Pisa prediction from BetMines: Fiorentina win (1) with 59% probability.