Flamengo welcome Cruzeiro on August 20, 2026, for the second leg of their Copa Libertadores tie, with kick-off scheduled for 00:30 local time at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. The contest remains open after a 1-1 draw on August 13, but the home side enter as favourites after building an imposing continental record. Flamengo are unbeaten in this season’s competition and are attempting to progress beyond the round of 16 for the fourth consecutive time as they defend their Copa Libertadores crown. Cruzeiro arrive in strong form of their own, making this an important test for two teams ranked first and second respectively in the supplied Copa Libertadores ranking.

Flamengo Recent Form and Key Statistics

Flamengo approach the second leg on a run of 12 matches without defeat across all competitions. Their latest result was an emphatic 5-1 victory over Mirassol on August 16. Across their last five fixtures, they have collected two wins and three draws while averaging 2.0 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded per match.

Their Copa Libertadores numbers strengthen the case for home confidence. Flamengo have recorded four wins and two draws without suffering a defeat, scoring an average of 2.0 goals per game and conceding just 0.5. They have found the net 12 times in the continental tournament and have scored 66 goals across the Copa Libertadores and the Brazilian league during the year. The squad’s total value is stated at 220 million euros, underlining the resources available to the defending champions.

Home form has been especially convincing. Flamengo have won their last eight home matches in the Copa Libertadores and have not drawn any of their previous 20 home fixtures in the competition. They have also scored at least once in 19 of their last 20 Copa Libertadores games at home. Their results do not usually develop into extremely high-scoring contests, however, as 23 of their last 24 matches in the tournament have finished with under 3.5 total goals.

The timing trends are also notable. At least one second-half goal has been scored in Flamengo’s last 23 matches and in each of their previous 18 home games. They have avoided going into the interval behind in 37 of their last 40 Copa Libertadores fixtures, including 18 of the last 20 at home, while leading at half-time in 12 of their previous 19 home matches in the tournament. In addition, 25 of their last 27 games have produced more than 1.5 total goals.

Pedro provides a major attacking reference after scoring twice against Mirassol. The forward has registered 14 goals and four assists this season and is identified as the Brazilian league’s leading scorer. Flamengo will nevertheless be without three injured players. The named absence is Alex Sandro, who has a calf problem, but the available attacking figures show that the hosts still carry a substantial scoring threat.

Cruzeiro Recent Form and Key Statistics

Cruzeiro travel for the decisive return match after going six games unbeaten in all competitions. They defeated Corinthians 2-1 on August 16 and have produced three victories and two draws across their last five outings. During that sequence, they averaged 1.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded, giving them both momentum and a solid recent defensive return.

In the Copa Libertadores, Cruzeiro’s season record stands at three wins, three draws and one defeat. They have averaged 1.3 goals per match while allowing 0.6, and the source material credits them with 44 goals across the continental and domestic competitions. Their Libertadores defence has conceded only three times, a figure that may be important against Flamengo’s productive attack.

The challenge is that Cruzeiro’s recent history in this fixture has been less favourable. They have managed only one victory in their last 10 direct meetings with Flamengo and have gone six visits to Flamengo’s ground without winning. The supplied five-match head-to-head summary gives Flamengo two victories, Cruzeiro one and two draws, with Flamengo averaging 1.0 goal scored and 0.6 conceded. The latest meeting ended level, so Cruzeiro remain firmly involved in the tie despite those broader trends.

The visitors also have five injured players according to the available information. Luis Sinisterra is described as an important absence, while Gabriel Pec suffered a broken leg. In attack, responsibility is expected to fall heavily on Kaio Jorge, who has scored eight goals across the Copa Libertadores and the domestic league this season.

Flamengo vs Cruzeiro Match Analysis

This second leg brings together two unbeaten recent runs, but the overall evidence gives Flamengo the clearer advantage. The defending champions combine a 12-game unbeaten sequence with eight consecutive Copa Libertadores home victories, while Cruzeiro have repeatedly struggled to win this away fixture. The model probabilities reflect that difference, assigning Flamengo a 57% chance of victory, compared with 24% for the draw and 19% for a Cruzeiro win.

The goal statistics offer a more balanced picture. Flamengo have been highly productive over the year and average two goals per Copa Libertadores match, but both teams are also conceding fewer than one goal per game in the competition. Only two of the last five meetings produced goals from both sides, while the supplied probabilities marginally favour Both Teams To Score No at 52%. Under 2.5 goals is likewise rated at 52%, and Flamengo’s repeated under 3.5 trend suggests that attacking quality does not automatically guarantee an open contest.

Cruzeiro’s recent form and continental defensive record mean Flamengo cannot rely on reputation alone. However, the hosts have scored in almost every recent home Libertadores fixture and have repeatedly reached half-time without trailing. With the tie level at 1-1, the contest should demand a decisive response, and Flamengo’s home sequence, superior head-to-head record and stronger win probability make a home victory the most coherent conclusion.

Flamengo vs Cruzeiro prediction from BetMines: Flamengo win (1) with 57% probability.