Flamengo and Estudiantes meet on October 23 with a place in the 2026 Copa Libertadores final at stake. Their semifinal is level after a 0-0 first leg in Buenos Aires, leaving the return match at the Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho to decide who advances. The teams have already faced each other three times this season, including two meetings in the group stage, and their encounters have tended to be tight: each of the last four finished with fewer than three goals. Flamengo have home advantage and an unbeaten record in this season’s competition, while Estudiantes have already won two knockout ties away from home. That contrast makes this a compelling second-leg match preview, with little separating the sides on the scoreline.

Flamengo's Recent Form and Key Stats

Flamengo returned from Buenos Aires with the semifinal still level and now have the chance to settle it at home. They also played the second legs of their previous knockout ties against Cruzeiro and Independiente del Valle at the Maracaná. Their recent home results offer encouragement: Flamengo have not lost any of their last 11 matches there, recording nine wins and two draws.

Across all competitions, Flamengo are unbeaten in their last five matches, with three wins and two draws. They have averaged 1.6 goals scored and 0.6 conceded over that stretch, and beat Bahia without conceding on October 18. In the Copa Libertadores, their record stands at six wins, four draws and no defeats, with averages of 1.7 goals scored and 0.5 conceded per match. Those figures underline the consistency they bring into a semifinal that begins again at 0-0.

The home side have also avoided defeat in 20 of their last 21 Copa Libertadores matches. They have scored at least once in 19 of their last 20 home matches in the competition, but their games have rarely become high-scoring contests: 27 of their last 28 Libertadores fixtures have finished under 3.5 goals, as have their last 13 home matches across competitions. Flamengo won the continental title in 2025 and are seeking a second consecutive appearance in the final.

Estudiantes' Recent Form and Key Stats

Estudiantes could not take a lead from the first leg, but a home draw has preceded both of their earlier knockout successes in this campaign. They drew at home before winning away against Universidad Católica and Corinthians, a sequence they will hope to repeat against Flamengo. The challenge is that their broader away record is less convincing: those two continental victories are their only away wins in their last 11 matches, a run that includes seven defeats. They have also yet to beat Flamengo at the Maracaná.

Estudiantes have won one, drawn two and lost two of their last five matches, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Their most recent outing was a 1-2 defeat against San Lorenzo on October 18. Their Copa Libertadores record is more resilient: four wins, six draws and one defeat, with averages of 1.1 goals scored and 0.6 conceded. The six draws help explain why another closely contested match would fit their campaign so far.

Goals have remained limited in Estudiantes’ continental fixtures, with each of their last 16 Copa Libertadores matches finishing under 3.5 goals. They have not reached the final since winning the competition in 2009. After progressing away from home in both the round of 16 and quarterfinals, they now face another decisive trip, this time against an opponent with a long unbeaten run at home.

Flamengo vs Estudiantes Match Analysis

The first leg’s 0-0 draw is the clearest starting point for this Flamengo vs Estudiantes preview. Neither team carries an aggregate lead, and their recent meetings provide further reason to expect a measured contest: all four of their latest head-to-head matches have ended with fewer than three goals. Flamengo have the stronger recent results and home record, but Estudiantes have shown in this tournament that they can follow a home draw with an away victory.

The teams’ Copa Libertadores defensive averages reinforce the prospect of narrow margins. Flamengo have conceded 0.5 goals per match in the competition, compared with 0.6 for Estudiantes. At the same time, Flamengo’s record of scoring in 19 of their last 20 Libertadores home games means the visitors cannot rely solely on the stalemate they secured in Buenos Aires. Estudiantes must find a result at a ground where Flamengo have been particularly difficult to beat.

Flamengo’s recent form gives them the stronger platform, while Estudiantes’ previous away wins in the knockout rounds show why the tie remains open. Even so, the goalless first leg, the four-match head-to-head trend and both teams’ low concession rates point towards a semifinal decided by a small number of chances rather than a high-scoring exchange.

Flamengo vs Estudiantes prediction from BetMines: Under 2.5 goals with 57% probability.