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Prediction published on Jul 24, 2026 10:08 PM by Dario in Brazil - Serie A | Modified on Jul 24, 2026 10:08 PM
Flamengo and São Paulo meet on Sunday, July 26, at 18:30 Brasília time in the 20th round of the Brazilian Serie A. The match at the Maracanã brings together teams experiencing sharply contrasting periods. Flamengo are second in the standings, have won their last three games without conceding and returned from the break with an emphatic 4-0 victory over Chapecoense. São Paulo, meanwhile, sit 12th and are without a league win in six rounds after losing 2-1 at home to Athletico PR. The visitors can draw encouragement from the most recent head-to-head meeting, which they won 2-1 on January 29, 2026, but the current numbers underline the difficult assignment awaiting them.
Flamengo enter this fixture with 37 points from 18 league matches, having recorded 11 wins, four draws and three defeats. Their Serie A averages stand at 1.9 goals scored and 0.9 conceded per game, reflecting a productive attack and a solid defensive record. The article data also credits the home side with 35 goals scored and only 16 allowed in the competition.
Their latest result was particularly convincing. On July 23, Leonardo Jardim's team defeated Chapecoense 4-0 away from home, extending a run of three consecutive victories without conceding. Across Flamengo's last five matches, their record is three wins, one draw and one defeat, with averages of 2.4 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. That recent output provides a strong platform as they continue pursuing the team above them while holding a game in hand.
The timing of Flamengo's goals is another notable feature. There has been at least one second-half goal in each of their last 18 matches and in their previous 16 home fixtures. The same pattern has occurred in 11 consecutive Serie A games. First halves at home have generally been more restrained, however, with fewer than 1.5 goals before the interval in Flamengo's last 10 home league matches. The hosts have nevertheless led at half time in six of their previous 10 home appearances in the competition and in 10 of their last 16 Serie A games overall.
Arrascaeta returned against Chapecoense after spending 97 days away from the pitch. Carracal remains unavailable because he must complete the final match of his suspension, while Paquetá, Léo Ortiz and Luiz Araújo are in the medical department. Paquetá and Léo Ortiz are described as being closer to returning, but no comeback is confirmed for this match.
São Paulo occupy 12th place with 25 points from 19 matches. Their league record consists of seven victories, four draws and eight defeats, alongside averages of 1.3 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per game. The figures supplied in the match information show 24 goals scored and 22 conceded, leaving the visitors well behind Flamengo in both the standings and attacking production.
Their return from the break brought another setback. São Paulo opened the scoring against Athletico PR on July 23 but conceded twice during the second half and suffered a 2-1 home defeat. That result extended their winless Serie A sequence to six rounds and followed another loss. Across their latest five matches, the Tricolor have one victory, two draws and two defeats, averaging one goal scored and one conceded.
Second-half action has also been a regular feature of São Paulo's games. At least one goal after the interval has been recorded in each of their last 11 Serie A fixtures and their last 12 away league matches. Looking across a broader sample, 20 of their previous 22 away games have produced at least one second-half goal. By contrast, at least one of the teams has failed to score during the first half in 31 of São Paulo's last 32 matches, suggesting that their fixtures frequently take time to open up.
Dorival Júnior must make at least one defensive adjustment because Rafael Tolói is receiving treatment for an injury. Ryan Francisco is also unavailable, while Bobadilla has returned following the World Cup but is listed as doubtful. Those selection concerns arrive at a moment when São Paulo are already under considerable pressure to halt their negative league run.
The contrast in form shapes the outlook for this Brazilian Serie A fixture. Flamengo have momentum, home advantage and stronger season figures, while São Paulo arrive after consecutive defeats and six league rounds without a victory. The hosts' 4-0 success against Chapecoense demonstrated their attacking capacity, but their three straight clean sheets are equally significant against an opponent averaging only one goal across its latest five games.
The first meeting offers São Paulo a reason for confidence. Gonzalo Plata gave Flamengo the lead before Luciano and Danielzinho completed a 2-1 comeback for the home side. Across the five-match head-to-head summary, Flamengo have one win, two draws and two defeats, with both teams averaging one goal per game. Those results show that the matchup has previously been competitive even though the clubs approach this encounter in very different circumstances.
The statistical trends point toward a game whose decisive moments may arrive after the break. Both teams carry long sequences of matches featuring second-half goals, while Flamengo's recent home league fixtures have consistently stayed below two first-half goals. São Paulo must therefore remain disciplined early and find a way to improve after the interval, when they conceded both goals in their latest defeat. Flamengo, by comparison, can rely on stronger overall scoring numbers and a defense that has not been breached during its current three-match winning sequence.
Flamengo: Rossi; Emerson Royal, Vitão, Léo Pereira, Ayrton Lucas; Pulgar, Jorginho; Plata, Lino, BH; Pedro.
Coach: Leonardo Jardim.
São Paulo: Rafael; Mayk, Arboleda, Alan Franco, Enzo Díaz; Bobadilla or Liziero, Marcos Antônio, Danielzinho; Luciano, Calleri, Gonzalo Tapia.
Coach: Dorival Júnior.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Flamengo
São Paulo
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
0
10
1
9
1.5
1
9
2
8
2.5
3
7
6
4
3.5
7
3
8
2
4.5
9
1
9
1