The 2026 Brasileirão Série A kicks off this Wednesday evening, January 28, with an exciting clash between Fluminense and Grêmio at the Maracanã Stadium. The match, scheduled for 19:30 (Brasília time), marks the beginning of the national campaign for both sides, each arriving in good form from their respective state championships. The Rio de Janeiro side comes into this fixture buoyed by a strong start in the Campeonato Carioca, while the visitors from Porto Alegre aim to carry their impressive attacking momentum from the Gauchão into the national stage.

Fluminense’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Fluminense approach this opening round full of confidence after a positive start to 2026. The team leads Group A of the Campeonato Carioca with 9 points from 4 matches, recording 3 wins and just 1 defeat. Their most notable result came in the 2-1 victory over Flamengo on January 25, a triumph that not only boosted morale but also confirmed their dominance in the state competition. Under the guidance of their current coach, the squad has shown a balanced style of play, maintaining possession effectively and creating consistent attacking pressure.

Statistically, the Tricolor Carioca have been formidable at home. They have won their last 12 home matches and remain unbeaten at half time in their last 20 home appearances. In Serie A specifically, they have won their last 9 home games and scored in each of their last 13 home fixtures. Their matches tend to be tight, with Under 3.5 goals recorded in 19 of their last 20 home encounters. This combination of defensive solidity and attacking efficiency makes them a difficult opponent for any visiting side.

• Last 5 matches: 4 wins, 0 draws, 1 defeat


• Average goals scored: 1.6 | Average conceded: 1.0


• Haven’t lost at half time in 13 consecutive Serie A home games


• Under 1.5 goals at half time in 26 of their last 29 matches

With such consistency, Fluminense are expected to take the initiative at the Maracanã, relying on their home strength and attacking rhythm to set the tone early in the match.

Grêmio’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Grêmio also arrive in Rio de Janeiro in strong form, having impressed in the Campeonato Gaúcho. Despite a recent 4-2 defeat in the Gre-Nal derby, the team leads the state competition with 6 wins, 2 draws, and only 1 loss in 8 matches, scoring 19 goals and conceding just 3. Their attacking line has been particularly productive, spearheaded by a striker who currently tops the scoring charts in the Gauchão. Even with the setback in the derby, the overall picture remains positive, as the team has shown both offensive power and defensive organization.

In national competition, Grêmio’s recent record also inspires confidence. They ended the 2025 Serie A season with a convincing 4-0 away win over Sport Recife and have maintained a strong scoring average of 2.4 goals per game across their last five fixtures. Their away matches tend to open up in the second half, with over 0.5 goals scored after the break in each of their last 10 Serie A away games. This suggests that the visitors often grow into matches and can be dangerous late on.

• Last 5 matches: 3 wins, 0 draws, 2 defeats


• Average goals scored: 2.4 | Average conceded: 1.4


• Over 0.5 goals in the second half in last 10 away Serie A matches


• Head-to-head vs Fluminense: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 defeat (last meeting 1-2 on 2025-12-03)

Grêmio’s blend of experienced players and emerging talents makes them a dangerous opponent, capable of exploiting spaces on the counterattack. Their recent scoring form suggests they will not hesitate to challenge Fluminense’s defense, even away from home.

Fluminense vs Grêmio Analysis and Prediction

This opening-round encounter promises to be a high-intensity battle between two teams in excellent form. Fluminense will look to dominate possession and dictate the tempo, while Grêmio are likely to rely on quick transitions and their clinical finishing to create danger. The home side’s impressive record at the Maracanã gives them a slight edge, but the visitors’ attacking efficiency ensures that the contest remains finely balanced.

Historically, this fixture has produced competitive matches, with both sides finding the net regularly. Given the current form of both attacks and the statistical trends, the expectation is for an open game with opportunities at both ends. The hosts’ home streak and the visitors’ scoring consistency point toward a match where both teams are likely to contribute to the scoreline.

Fluminense vs Grêmio prediction by BetMines:
Both Teams To Score (Yes) with 50% probability.