France host Belgium at Stade de France on Monday, October 5, in a UEFA Nations League Group A1 meeting between the group’s top two sides. France lead with seven points from three matches, while second-placed Belgium have won two of their three games. Les Bleus claimed a 1-0 victory in Brussels on September 28, but Belgium arrive after a 3-0 win over Türkiye. With both teams having conceded only one goal in this Nations League campaign, their latest meeting offers an intriguing test of France’s head-to-head advantage against Belgium’s strong away form.

France’s Recent Form and Key Stats

France remain unbeaten in Group A1, having beaten Türkiye and Belgium 1-0 before drawing 1-1 with Italy on October 2. That draw ended Zinedine Zidane’s winning start as manager. France had 65% possession and 49 touches in Italy’s box, but produced 1.26 expected goals and could not find a winner. Their Nations League average stands at 1.0 goal scored and 0.3 conceded per match.

The broader form picture is less consistent: France’s last five matches have brought two wins, one draw and two defeats, with averages of 1.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. They have nevertheless won 11 of their last 15 matches in all competitions, including six of their last 10 at home. At least one goal has been scored by France in 21 of their last 22 matches, while their last 13 home games have each featured more than 1.5 total goals.

France will be without Dayot Upamecano, who is suspended after receiving two bookings against Italy. Kylian Mbappé has returned to Real Madrid for treatment on a knee injury. Michael Olise has made a direct goal contribution in every Nations League match so far: he provided an assist in the opener, then scored in each of the next two games, including the winner against Belgium. He has 14 direct goal contributions in 10 appearances for club and country this season.

Belgium’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Belgium responded to their defeat against France by beating Türkiye 3-0 on October 2. They began their Nations League campaign with a 2-0 win over Italy and have a record of two wins and one loss, averaging 1.7 goals scored and 0.3 conceded per match. Against Türkiye, the Red Devils registered 17 shots, 10 on target, alongside 28 touches in the opposition box and 1.58 expected goals.

Belgium have won three of their last five matches, losing the other two, and have scored an average of 2.0 goals across that stretch. Their away results offer further encouragement: they are unbeaten in their last eight away games. Each of their last 10 away matches has featured more than 1.5 total goals and at least one first-half goal, while they have led at half-time in eight of those 10 fixtures.

The win over Türkiye came at a cost ahead of this trip. Kevin De Bruyne, who scored twice in that match, is suspended because of an accumulation of yellow cards. Youri Tielemans must also serve a suspension. Those absences leave Mark van Bommel with decisions to make in midfield as Belgium seek their first victory over France since a friendly in 2015.

France vs Belgium Match Analysis

Recent meetings favour the hosts. France have won the last five head-to-head matches, including last week’s 1-0 result in Brussels, and have kept clean sheets in four of their last six games against Belgium. Belgium managed 0.69 expected goals in that latest defeat. France’s record in this fixture is a notable counterweight to the visitors’ unbeaten away run.

There are reasons to expect chances at both ends: France have scored in 21 of their last 22 matches, and Belgium’s recent away games have regularly produced goals. Yet the teams’ defensive records in this Nations League campaign and the 1-0 scoreline in Brussels suggest that neither side can assume those chances will be easy to convert. Belgium’s three-goal response against Türkiye showed their attacking threat, although De Bruyne and Tielemans will be unavailable this time.

France enter with the group lead, home advantage and a run of victories over Belgium, but their 1-1 draw with Italy showed that controlling a match does not guarantee a decisive goal. Belgium have the away record to make this competitive. The central question for this France vs Belgium preview is whether the visitors can turn that resilience into a result against an opponent they have repeatedly struggled to beat.

France vs Belgium prediction from BetMines: France win (1) with 44% probability.