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Fulham
2:00 PM
September 5, 2026
Crystal Palace
Prediction published on Sep 3, 2026 2:36 PM by Dario in England - Premier League | Modified on Sep 3, 2026 2:36 PM
Fulham welcome Crystal Palace to Craven Cottage on Saturday, September 5, 2026, for a 14:00 Premier League kick-off. This matchday-three London derby brings together two clubs still searching for their first league points of the season. Fulham begin the fixture in 16th place, while Crystal Palace are 18th after both teams lost their opening two matches. Defensive problems have contributed heavily to those starts: the hosts are conceding an average of 2.0 goals per Premier League game, while the visitors have allowed 3.0 per match. With both teams under immediate pressure to respond, the contest offers an important opportunity to secure a first league victory of the campaign.
Fulham enter the derby after a 1-0 away defeat against Sunderland on August 30. Álvaro Arbeloa’s team struggled to create sustained pressure for much of that match, with six of their 11 attempts arriving from the 84th minute onwards as they chased an equaliser. That result followed a 3-2 home loss to Chelsea in the league and a 3-0 home victory over AFC Wimbledon in the Carabao Cup.
Across their last five matches, Fulham have recorded two wins, one draw and two defeats, scoring an average of 1.6 goals and conceding 1.2. Their Premier League record this season stands at two losses, with averages of 1.0 goal scored and 2.0 conceded. The underlying defensive numbers have also been concerning: Fulham allowed 4.3 expected goals and eight big scoring chances across their first two league fixtures.
Gonzalo Garcia has provided an encouraging attacking presence. The 22-year-old scored on his Premier League debut against Chelsea and then found the net during a 17-minute appearance against AFC Wimbledon. He produced three shots in that short cup cameo and has averaged 3.0 attempts per game across his three appearances. After Fulham failed to score at Sunderland, his ability to reach dangerous positions could be particularly important against a Crystal Palace defence that has already conceded six league goals.
The hosts will be without Hugo Larsson, who is unavailable after arriving on loan from Frankfurt. Fulham can nevertheless take encouragement from playing at Craven Cottage, where they posted an 11-win, two-draw and six-loss record last season. More recently, they have avoided a draw in 19 of their last 20 home matches, suggesting that their games at this venue usually produce a decisive outcome.
Crystal Palace travel across London following a 4-1 home defeat against Manchester City on August 28. That heavy loss came after a 2-0 away defeat to Everton in their opening league fixture, leaving Pierre Sage’s side without a point and with one goal scored against six conceded.
The Everton result did not fully reflect Palace’s attacking performance. They registered 1.96 open-play expected goals compared with Everton’s 0.62 and created four clear scoring chances while their opponents produced one. However, missed opportunities prevented the visitors from turning those numbers into goals. Their subsequent defeat to Manchester City then increased the pressure on a defence conceding an average of 3.0 goals per league match.
Palace have two wins, one draw and two defeats from their last five matches in all competitions, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Several trends from their away fixtures point towards early and sustained goalmouth action:
The visitors must also cope without Jean-Philippe Mateta and Ismaila Sarr. Mateta hit the post and missed two major opportunities against Everton, while Sarr was Palace’s second most productive attacking player last season. Strand-Larsen has scored four goals in 24 appearances, leaving Palace needing contributions from elsewhere.
Adam Wharton could have a significant influence from midfield. The 22-year-old ranks second for line-breaking passes per 90 minutes this season with 16.5 and has created four chances, including two big scoring opportunities. His passing may be central to Palace’s efforts to exploit a Fulham side that has already allowed eight major chances in the league.
The recent head-to-head record favors Crystal Palace. From the five meetings covered by the supplied summary, Fulham have no wins, one draw and four defeats, averaging 0.6 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. Palace also won the latest encounter 2-1 on August 7, 2026. In addition, they have won on their last three visits to Craven Cottage, including two league matches and one FA Cup tie, and have not lost at this ground since 2016.
Fulham are nevertheless given the stronger win probability for this fixture, with the hosts rated at 47%, compared with 24% for the draw and 29% for a Crystal Palace victory. Home advantage and Garcia’s promising start support their prospects, but the Cottagers’ defensive figures make it difficult to dismiss the visitors’ chances of scoring.
The available trends point towards opportunities at both ends. Fulham’s last 20 home matches have included a second-half goal on 18 occasions, while every one of Palace’s previous 11 away games has gone over 1.5 total goals and produced a first-half goal. The overall probabilities also give Over 2.5 goals a 60% chance. Fulham have shown attacking potential at home, while Palace created enough chances against Everton to suggest their single league goal does not tell the whole story. With both defences having made vulnerable starts, each side should have openings in a derby where three points would provide a much-needed lift.
Fulham vs Crystal Palace prediction from BetMines: Both Teams To Score (Yes) with 61% probability.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Fulham
Crystal Palace
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
0
10
1
9
1.5
2
8
2
8
2.5
5
5
3
7
3.5
8
2
7
3
4.5
9
1
8
2