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Prediction published on May 3, 2025 7:42 AM by Dario in Italy - Serie A | Modified on May 5, 2025 8:27 AM
Serie A Matchday 35 closes at the Stadio Luigi Ferraris with the Monday night clash between Genoa and AC Milan — a match between two sides with no real table objectives left, but eager to finish their seasons on a high note. The home side, despite a narrow defeat to Como in the last league round, have already celebrated their second consecutive Serie A survival. Much of the credit goes to Patrick Vieira who, since replacing Alberto Gilardino last November, has revitalized the Rossoblù’s campaign, collecting 29 points in 22 matches with an average of 1.32 points per game. With survival secured, Genoa will now aim to finish the season in style, maximizing their points over the final four matchdays in hopes — however slim — of breaking into the top half of the table. That said, the calendar is not favorable for the Grifone, who must face Napoli, Atalanta, and Bologna after Milan. AC Milan, currently ninth and six points away from sixth place, are focused primarily on winning the Coppa Italia, with the final set for May 14 against Bologna. Victory in the domestic cup — which would be their second trophy of the season after the Supercoppa Italiana — would also secure Europa League qualification. For this reason, manager Conceição and his players are expected to have their minds more on the Stadio Olimpico showdown than on league affairs. Nevertheless, the Rossoneri showed commitment to Serie A with a strong 0-2 win away at Venezia.
In their last Serie A match, Genoa suffered a 1-0 loss at Como’s Sinigallia Stadium, making it three games without a win following a 0-2 home loss to Lazio and a goalless draw away at Verona. The Rossoblù haven’t scored in three games and haven’t won since April 4, when they edged Udinese 1-0. That goal by Zanoli remains their only goal in their last five matches.
At home under Patrick Vieira, Genoa have recorded 5 wins, 7 draws, and 5 losses, with an average of 1.06 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per match. Before the Lazio defeat on April 23, the Ligurian side had gone six games unbeaten at the Ferraris — 5 wins (including key clashes with Parma, Monza, Venezia, and Lecce) and a draw with Empoli.
AC Milan are in decent form, coming off a 0-2 win at Venezia with goals from Pulisic and Santiago Giménez. They’ve lost just once in their last six matches across all competitions (3 wins, 2 draws). The recent switch to a three-man defense has made the Rossoneri more solid at the back: Maignan hasn’t conceded in their last three Serie A matches.
On the road, Milan’s form is comparable to their home record, collecting 26 of their 54 total points away. They average 1.64 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per away game. Impressively, Leão and teammates have won their last three away matches without conceding: 0-4 at Udinese, 0-3 in the Coppa Italia semifinal second leg against Inter, and 0-2 at Venezia.
Milan have a strong recent record at the Stadio Luigi Ferraris, winning five of their last six away matches against Genoa. In the reverse fixture played at the San Siro last December, the two sides drew 0-0 in a match dominated by the Rossoneri.
In terms of motivation, Vieira’s side are already safe but eager to give their fans something to celebrate before the season ends. Conceição’s Milan, at least on paper, still have a slim chance of reaching European spots via the league, but their primary focus appears to be winning the Coppa Italia to secure a Europa League berth.
Given Genoa’s attacking struggles — with just one goal in their last five matches — and Milan’s defensive solidity, combined with their recent scoring consistency, it seems likely that the visitors will return from Genoa unbeaten.
For this reason, the BetMines algorithm’s prediction for Genoa vs AC Milan leans toward a win or draw for the away team: X2 double chance.
GENOA (4-2-3-1): Leali; Sabelli, De Winter, Vásquez, Martin; Frendrup, Masini; Zanoli, Messias, Ahanor; Pinamonti. Manager: Vieira
AC MILAN (3-4-3): Maignan; Tomori, Gabbia, Pavlović; Jiménez, Fofana, Reijnders, Theo Hernández; Pulisic, Jovic, Leão. Manager: Conceição
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Genoa
AC Milan
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
2
8
1
9
1.5
2
8
5
5
2.5
6
4
6
4
3.5
10
0
8
2
4.5
10
0
8
2