At the Stadio Luigi Ferraris, on Sunday, November 9, the crucial relegation clash of Serie A Matchday 11 takes place between Genoa and Fiorentina — currently sitting third from bottom and bottom of the table respectively, separated by just two points. Given the poor performances from both teams so far, the two clubs have decided to make managerial changes in recent days: the Rossoblù have appointed Daniele De Rossi as their new coach, while the Viola have turned to Paolo Vanoli, who enjoyed a successful spell with Torino last season. Both sides come into this match desperate for points: Genoa want to build on their first league victory of the season against Sassuolo, while Fiorentina are still searching for their first Serie A win to climb off the bottom. All the ingredients are there for a tight and intense encounter between two teams that, at this point, are arguably the biggest disappointments of the 2025/26 Serie A season.

Genoa's Recent Form and Key Stats

Genoa come into this fixture full of confidence after earning their first Serie A win last weekend with a 1–2 victory over Sassuolo in Reggio Emilia. The decisive goal came from Leo Østigård in the closing minutes, after Berardi had cancelled out Malinovskyi’s opener for the Rossoblù.

In their last five matches, Genoa have recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game. Before the victory over Sassuolo, De Rossi’s men had suffered back-to-back defeats against Torino (2–1) and Cremonese (0–2).

The Grifone currently sit 18th with 6 points, the result of 1 win, 3 draws, and 6 losses, with a total of 6 goals scored (second-worst attack in the league) and 14 conceded. Their home record is particularly worrying: no wins so far, with 2 draws and 3 defeats — and not a single goal scored at the Luigi Ferraris.

Fiorentina's Recent Form and Key Stats

Fiorentina are enduring a terrible run of form, coming off three straight defeats, the latest being a 2–1 loss away to Mainz in the UEFA Conference League on Thursday, November 6. That match highlighted the Viola’s defensive and mental fragility, which new coach Paolo Vanoli will be eager to address.

The recent numbers don’t make for better reading: across their last five matches in all competitions, Fiorentina have managed 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Their attack has been particularly ineffective, having found the net just once in their last three outings.

The Viola currently occupy last place in Serie A with only 4 points (4 draws and 6 losses), having scored 7 goals and conceded 16 — the worst defensive record in the league, tied with Verona and Torino. Away from home, Fiorentina have picked up 3 points so far, all from draws (against Cagliari, Torino, and Pisa), alongside defeats to Milan and Inter.

Genoa vs Fiorentina Prediction by BetMines

According to the BetMines algorithm, Fiorentina are slight favorites to win this match, but given their current struggles, caution is advised: the best betting tip is to go for Double Chance X2, predicting either a draw or an away win.

Historical data also favors Fiorentina: the Viola have won five of the last six head-to-head matches, with one draw completing the record. Genoa’s last victory over Fiorentina dates back to the 2018/19 season.

Given the importance of this match, with both teams battling to avoid relegation and each coming off a managerial change, both coaches are likely to adopt a cautious approach, minimizing risks.

This points towards a tight and low-scoring contest, where fewer than three goals are expected: the Under 2.5 goals market looks the most likely outcome. After all, both sides have struggled in attack this season — Colombo and Kean have scored zero and two goals respectively so far.

Genoa will be without the suspended Malinovskyi, who scored in the last round against Sassuolo, while Fiorentina could opt for some offensive rotation following their midweek European fixture. A key absentee will also be Gosens, often decisive with his runs down the left flank.

Probable Lineups Genoa vs Fiorentina

GENOA (3-5-2): Leali; Marcandalli, Østigård, Vásquez; Norton-Cuffy, Thorsby, Frendrup, Masini, Martin; Vitinha, Colombo. Coach: De Rossi

FIORENTINA (3-5-2): De Gea; Pongračić, Marí, Ranieri; Dodô, Mandragora, Nicolussi Caviglia, Fagioli, Fortini; Kean, Guðmundsson. Coach: Vanoli