On Saturday, November 15, at the Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena in Tbilisi, Georgia hosts Spain in a crucial match with major implications for qualification to the 2026 World Cup. Spain, sitting at the top of Group E with maximum points, needs a victory to secure a spot in the final tournament. Despite holding only a three-point lead over second-placed Turkey, Luis de la Fuente’s side boasts a far superior goal difference, allowing them to approach the final matchday against Turkey with greater confidence. La Roja, coming off a flawless qualifying campaign so far, travel to Tbilisi determined to seal qualification early, although they’ll have to do without Lamine Yamal, ruled out due to injury. Even in his absence, Spain remain strong favorites thanks to their depth of talent and tactical cohesion, which have made them one of Europe’s most in-form national teams. Georgia, with just three points to date, would need a sporting miracle—and a series of favorable results—to have any chance of snatching second place, which is likely destined for Turkey. On paper, the match looks one-sided, but Georgia will aim to honor their fans with a spirited performance.

Georgia's Recent Form and Key Stats

It’s a difficult moment for Georgia, who have suffered two consecutive defeats. In their last match on October 14, they were beaten 4-1 away by Turkey, once again exposing defensive weaknesses already evident in the early group stages.

Willy Sagnol’s team has collected 3 points so far in Group E, coming from 1 win and 3 losses, with an average of 1.5 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. The most dangerous player at Sagnol’s disposal is undoubtedly PSG forward Kvaratskhelia, who has scored twice in this World Cup Qualifiers campaign.

Georgia’s recent home form has been inconsistent: in their last five home games across all competitions, they’ve recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, averaging 2.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. This shows that they tend to perform more solidly at home compared to their away fixtures.

Spain's Recent Form and Key Stats

Spain arrive in Tbilisi as overwhelming favorites, riding an impressive 29-match unbeaten streak. Their latest result came on October 14, a 4-0 victory over Bulgaria, thanks to a brace from Merino, a goal from Oyarzabal, and an own goal by Chernev.

As expected, La Roja lead Group E with a perfect record of 12 points from 4 wins, averaging 3.75 goals per match without conceding a single one. De la Fuente’s men have proven to be a ruthless attacking force, driven by Mikel Merino—who has netted 6 goals in this competition—while also maintaining a rock-solid defense.

The reigning European champions boast an excellent away record, remaining unbeaten in their last 12 matches on the road across all competitions. In their two away games in this group, they’ve defeated both Bulgaria and Turkey, scoring a combined 9 goals and keeping clean sheets in both.

Georgia vs Spain prediction by BetMines

According to the BetMines algorithm, the prediction clearly favors a Spain victory, with the away win (2) estimated at 61% probability, compared to just 16% for a Georgian success.

La Roja, after a long run of dominant performances on the international stage, have already proven their superiority in the reverse fixture, which they won 2-0 with goals from Pino and Oyarzabal. That victory extended Spain’s dominant head-to-head record against Georgia, having won all of the last six meetings, averaging 3.67 goals scored and just 0.67 conceded per match.

Tactically, this is expected to be a one-way match, with Spain controlling possession and likely looking to break the deadlock early, conserving energy ahead of their upcoming clash with Turkey.

The hosts will rely on Kvaratskhelia’s creativity and counterattacks to pose a threat, but it’s hard to see them overcoming a defense that has yet to concede a goal in the tournament. For this reason, BetMines also recommends the tip “both teams NOT to score,” predicting a possible fifth consecutive clean sheet for Spain.

Probable Lineups Georgia vs Spain

GEORGIA (4-3-3): Mamardashvili; Kakabadze, Kashia, Goglichidze, Gocholeishvili; Kiteishvili, Mekvabishvili, Kochorashvili; Zivzivadze, Kvilitaia, Kvaratskhelia. Coach: Sagnol

SPAIN (4-3-3): Simon; Porro, Le Normand, Cubarsi, Cucurella; Merino, Zubimendi, Ruiz; Oyarzabal, F Torres, Baena. Coach: De la Fuente